Forget those who say that Evenepoel will never wear yellow in Paris. There are strong reasons to believe he will reach the sport’s top step.
Remco Evenepoel blurred to victory in the stage 5 TT at this year’s Tour de France (Photo: Gruber Images)
Published November 6, 2025 12:49AM
This summer several commentators expressed skepticism about Remco Evenepoel ever winning the Tour de France.
They pointed to the superiority of Tadej Pogačar in the sport, as well as the class of Jonas Vingegaard, himself a two-time Tour winner. They also questioned Evenepoel’s climbing ability, suggesting that he would never be able to truly compare to the two others, nor indeed to other specialist climbers.
But dismissing him outright is premature, if not plain wrong, and here’s why.
Evenepoel is still developing
It seems like Evenepoel has been around forever, because he kind of has. He’s been commanding headlines for years, winning the junior European championships by almost 10 minutes in 2018 and doubling up with the TT and road race at the worlds that same year.
He was promptly gobbled up by the Soudal Quick-Step team and turned pro the following season, with the hype machine putting him in the public eye ever since then. Despite those years of being front and center, he’s still just 25 years old.
Granted Pogačar won his first Tour at 22, but most riders don’t peak until they are closer to 30. Evenepoel has ample room to improve.
He’s an accomplished grand tour rider
Pogačar skews the scales with his achievements but Evenepoel has been making waves in three-week races for years. He won the Vuelta a España back in 2022 at 22 years old. That made him the fourth-youngest rider in history to do so.
He might well have won the Giro d’Italia the following season, winning time trials on stages 1 and 9, and holding a 45 second advantage over Geraint Thomas heading towards stage 10. However he was then forced out of the race while in the lead due to Covid-19.
Since then he’s done just two Tours. Vingegaard has ridden five, Pogačar has competed in six. Evenepoel is still learning about the race and is at a competitive disadvantage as a result.
Remco Evenepoel wasn’t at his best at this year’s Tour due to a lingering injury earlier this year (Photo: Chris Auld)
Pogačar and Vingegaard are (likely) as good as they will be
Pogačar is unmistakably the king of the sport right now, but it’s worth remembering he is 27, two years older than his Belgian rival. Sure, he won his first Tour at just 21, making him the second-youngest winner ever. But not all riders hit their stride so soon, and Father Time comes a callin’ for all of them sooner or later.
It’s often said in cycling that riders reach their best at 27 or perhaps 28. Pogačar is at that point now, and his many years competing at the highest level could see things already starting to plateau. He’s even spoken about potential burnout.
Vingegaard is older again. He will turn 29 in December, meaning time is very much on Evenepoel’s side.
He’s the best time trialist in the world
There’s no debate about this point. Thus far Evenepoel has taken three world championships in the discipline, as well as two European titles plus the Olympic gold medal. His TT record against Pogačar is exemplary: they have clashed against the clock 11 times, with Evenepoel beating him on nine of those.
By coincidence, the same statistic applies to Vingegaard. The Belgian is vastly superior.
And while Tour organizers have been opting for the harder, higher approach to course design, there is an argument that at least one Tour in the coming years should throw more of a bone to TT specialists. Consider the Bradley Wiggins Tour win in 2012, where there was 101 kilometers against the clock. Next year’s race? Just 45, including a team time trial.
That’s very much skewed away from Evenepoel, but things may well re-balance again, particularly if ASO wants to make the outcome less predictable.
It will also be acutely aware of how frenzied the reaction in Belgium would be if Evenepoel ended a 50-year wait for success.
He’s got the wings of Red Bull behind him now
Evenepoel has only ever competed as a pro with the Soudal Quick-Step team. It’s a smaller, less GC-oriented squad than either Pogačar’s UAE Emirates-XRG or Vingegaard’s Visma-Lease a Bike, with less firepower and also less finances behind it. However he’s moving on a multi-year deal to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe and will have much greater backing behind him.
That should see him with stronger teammates, better coaching and important refinements to equipment and position. The fact that both teams are sponsored by Specialized should avoid any time wastage in terms of changing over gear, and he’s already spent a big block of time searching for further improvements.
Don’t be surprised to see a stronger, speedier Evenepoel next season, and a narrowing of the gap.
This year didn’t work out due to a frazzled preparation but, even with the likes of Isaac del Toro waiting in the wings, it would be foolhardy to dismiss the Belgian’s chances in the years to come.