In 2024, the Republican attack line was that Democrats were too “woke” and focused on issues like transgender athletes in school sports. These issues are not atop most voters’ lists of concerns, but Republicans have gotten very good over the past decade at raising the salience of whatever issues—often cultural ones—they think will be to their advantage. “When Republicans decide, ‘This is what we’re going to do, this is what we’re going to make a thing,’ they don’t look at a poll and say, ‘Oh, nobody cares about this,’” Shenker-Osorio said. Instead, they hammer the messages until voters take notice. Democrats are thus forced into a defensive crouch—explaining, say, their position on trans athletes—rather than advancing their own political ideas. And because voters can easily name what they think Republicans want to do, these attacks don’t backfire.
In Virginia, Democratic Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger’s opponent, Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, ran ads trying to repeat that strategy, attacking Spanberger on trans rights in local schools. But it didn’t work. There likely isn’t just one reason for that: Nationwide, voters are upset about President Donald Trump’s actions, Northern Virginia has been especially hit hard by cuts to the federal workforce, and Earle-Sears was trying to replace an unpopular Republican incumbent in the state. But part of the reason is that Spanberger specifically ran on affordability issues instead, and Virginians were worried about cost of living issues more than anything else. “You all chose leadership that will focus relentlessly on what matters most: lowering costs, keeping our communities safe, and strengthening our economy for every Virginian,” she said after she was declared the winner.
Spanberger, and Democratic Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, have promised to go after middlemen and big corporations inflating health care and grocery costs. In New York City, Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani has promised even more: that the city will freeze rents, make buses free, and establish city-run grocery stores in underserved areas. But the results they are promising—a lower cost of living—would be the same.