Earlier this month, Clean Energy Fuels reported third-quarter results with revenue of US$106.14 million, exceeding analyst forecasts but posting a net loss of US$23.82 million, alongside a series of new agreements to expand renewable natural gas (RNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) fueling for fleets nationwide.
An important detail is the company’s continued progress in ramping up dairy RNG production, signing contracts with major fleet operators, and investing in new infrastructure, which highlights growing adoption of RNG-powered transportation solutions.
We’ll examine how the combination of new RNG production capacity and customer contracts could reshape Clean Energy Fuels’ investment outlook.
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To be a shareholder in Clean Energy Fuels, you need to believe that growth in renewable natural gas (RNG) adoption, driven by regulatory trends, infrastructure investment, and long-term fleet contracts, will eventually translate into improved profitability. The recent third-quarter results showcased solid revenue and expanding customer partnerships, but ongoing net losses and growing dependence on external incentives keep pressure on both the near-term catalyst (heavy-duty trucking sector adoption) and the major risk (volatility in environmental credit markets). The latest earnings report did not materially alter these short-term dynamics.
Among Clean Energy Fuels’ many recent announcements, the signed deals to supply RNG to several new and existing fleet operators, including United Dairymen of Arizona and Paper Transport, directly relate to long-term revenue drivers. By expanding its customer base and securing multi-year fueling agreements, Clean Energy Fuels aims to boost utilization at RNG stations, potentially supporting the critical catalyst of higher fleet conversions in the transport sector.
But while expanding fleet agreements provide some optimism, investors should also be aware that ongoing earnings volatility, driven by unpredictable RIN and LCFS credit prices, could still…
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Clean Energy Fuels’ outlook anticipates $474.7 million in revenue and $70.1 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario is based on a 4.1% annual revenue growth rate and represents a $273.6 million increase in earnings from the current level of -$203.5 million.
Uncover how Clean Energy Fuels’ forecasts yield a $4.49 fair value, a 88% upside to its current price.
