GoLocalProv | Assessing 2025 Elections and Shutdown Letdown

Sunday, November 09, 2025

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

President Donald Trump PHOTO: GoLocal

We are now less than a year away from the 2026 midterm elections, after wrapping up the much smaller 2025 field of contests on Tuesday. And the government shutdown impact continues, with seemingly no end in sight. Let’s “brunch” on all of that this week.

“Election Wrap” – The most noteworthy races all fell in the Democrats’ favor. The office winners are: Gov.-Elect Abigail Spanberger (D) Virginia; Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) New Jersey; and Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani (D) New York City. The significant ballot initiative that passed was Proposition 50 in California, which will lead to redrawing the state’s Congressional districts and could yield five seats for Democrats. There was a smattering of big-city mayoral races in places such as Cleveland, Detroit, Boston, and Atlanta (all heavily blue), plus legislative races and state ballot initiatives, but they have scant meaning nationwide. Perhaps most intriguing was in Georgia, where Democrats flipped two statewide Republican seats on the Public Service Commission. But more and more, Georgia is a purple state.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE — SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

“Election Meaning” – It was a good night for Democrats, but the meaning of the 2025 off-year elections is being wildly overstated by bad social science and sloppy journalism. “It was a ‘Blue Wave’ all across the nation last night,” said one network anchor Wednesday morning. “It’s a referendum on Trump,” said another analyst. Nope, not really in either example, and here is why. There were four big contests Tuesday night, all in solidly blue states. Four states skewed to Democrats are hardly a balanced, scientific sample of the nation, from which you could make such a wild prediction. Now, if you had four red states, and two purple states – plus those four blue states – you’d have a pretty good representative sample from which to draw larger conclusions.

“Three Key Takeaways” – That said, there are three key takeaways. Exit polling by the Associated Press and CNN shows that the economy is the number one issue for voters. Of course, it always is, but which way the economy turns in the next 12 months could have a significant impact on which party controls Congress. The exit polling also showed widespread dissatisfaction with President Trump, but I remind people that these were predominantly blue-state voters being polled. Still, you may see some vulnerable Republican members in the U.S. House and Senate distance themselves from Trump over the next year. The final takeaway is the significance of states redrawing their Congressional districts. Several states – both red and blue – have approved it, and I suspect more will follow.

“Ohio Map” – Speaking of redistricting, Ohio is the latest state to dive into the fray, along with California. Just days before Tuesday’s vote, the Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously to approve a Congressional map that could make two more seats competitive for Republican gains. Missouri, North Carolina, and Texas have now redrawn maps in the Republicans’ favor. But Democrats made significant gains in the Virginia legislature on Election Day, so they might redraw their maps, too.

“Poll Trends” – Neither party should find solace or despair in Tuesday’s election. What both sides of the aisle should be concerned about is the widespread discontent across the land with both parties. A recent Washington Post-ABC News Poll showed Trump’s disapproval rating at 59 percent. But the same poll said more than two-thirds of voters believe Democrats remain “out of touch” with Americans. Some 68 percent of respondents agreed that Democrats don’t get the concerns of most people, which is worse than the 63 percent who say the same about Trump and the 61 percent who say the same about the Republican Party overall. I’ve said for weeks, especially during the prolonged government shutdown, that all incumbents are in jeopardy next year, not just one side. People sent members of both parties to Capitol Hill to get a job done, and they have collectively failed. We are now in the longest government shutdown in history, with deep cuts to SNAP and significant reductions in air traffic control, resulting in flight delays and cancellations.

“Both Sides React” — “President Trump is on the ballot next fall,” Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said in his first comments at a news conference outside the Capitol on Wednesday. While off-year elections are not really a referendum on the White House, the midterm Congressional elections are. Johnson believes if Democrats retake the House, they will file to impeach Trump, and he’s using that to motivate GOP voters. Former President Barack Obama said, “Congratulations to all the Democratic candidates who won tonight. It’s a reminder that when we come together around strong, forward-looking leaders who care about the issues that matter, we can win. We’ve still got plenty of work to do, but the future looks a little bit brighter.”

“Partial SNAP Funding” – When you talk about voters pointing to the economy as the number one issue, I can’t help but think of how SNAP beneficiaries voted on Election Day. Forty-two million people lost their food benefits on November 1. At first, the Trump administration said it might send people half of their SNAP benefits for November, after a federal court ordered the White House to find the funds in a supplemental account. Now, President Trump is saying there will be no food benefits to low-income families until the government shutdown ends. He is pressuring Senate Republicans to end the filibuster rule and reopen the government. The bottom line is, the economy matters to voters, especially when it comes to being able to eat. Politicians in both parties need to tread these waters carefully, as this could be a huge issue in the 2026 midterms. Thursday, a federal judge in Rhode Island ordered the Trump administration to fully fund SNAP benefits for November, but the White House is appealing.

“Trump Tariffs and the Supreme Court” – Another economic issue that may sway voters is the tariffs imposed by President Trump on imported goods from foreign countries. Coincidentally, the U.S. Supreme Court was hearing cases on the Constitutionality of just that this past week. While the Constitution specifically grants Congress tariff power, Trump invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, claiming the trade deficits constituted a national emergency. The lower courts have been a mixed bag, with some siding with Trump and some opposed. Some conservative justices were skeptical of Trump’s rationale, saying that tariffs were actually taxes. Chief Justice John Roberts referred to the “imposition of taxes on Americans” as a “core power of Congress.” But Justice Brett Kavanaugh noted that previous federal courts had allowed then-President Richard Nixon to levy tariffs. A final ruling could come next year.

“RIP Dick Cheney” – The late Vice President Dick Cheney was undoubtedly a political lightning rod, with people either loving him or despising him. But having served as White House Chief of Staff, Secretary of Defense, in Congress for 10 years, and then as Vice President for 8 years, he had a long Washington, DC resume. He feuded with President Trump and called Trump the greatest “threat to our republic” in U.S. history, and also called him a “coward.” Trump made no statement on Cheney’s passing, but the White House lowered its flags to half-staff. Former President George W. Bush said in a statement, “History will remember him as among the finest public servants of his generation.” Cheney and I had one thing in common. We both got our entry into Washington, DC by winning prestigious Congressional Fellowships through the American Political Science Association. Only about 32 Americans win that honor in any given year. Cheney did so in 1968, and I did in 1992.

“End of an Era” – Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D) California announced Thursday that she will not seek reelection next year, and will retire from Congress at the end of this term. She is 85 and has served in the U.S. House for 38 years, including two stints as Speaker of the House, for a total of 8 years. I got to know Pelosi and her family quite well as a reporter in both DC and San Francisco. Pelosi said in her retirement video, “With a grateful heart, I look forward to my final year of service as your proud representative. As we go forward, my message to the city I love is this: San Francisco, know your power. We have made history. We have made progress.”

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a South Florida-based political writer and analyst who has covered news and politics all across the nation, including New England, for the past 48 years. Most recently, he was the Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations covering West Virginia, its five neighboring states, and the entire Washington, DC media market. He remains a MINDSETTER™ Contributing Political Writer and Analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.

Off to the Races in 2026 and 2028—“The Sunday Political Brunch” – July 6, 2025

A Timeline of Troubles – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—June 29, 2025

Musk, Epstein, and Tariffs – “The Sunday Political Brunch”- July 13, 2025

Epstein Still Taking the City by Storm – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—July 20, 2025

All Epstein; All the Time – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – July 27, 2025

Tensions Rise Globally and Locally – “The Sunday Political Brunch” June 22, 2025

There’s Turmoil at Every Turn – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – June 15, 2025

May is Critical to the Trump Agenda, Biden’s Decline – “The Sunday Political Brunch” May 18, 2025

Presidential History Has a Way of Repeating Itself – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—May 25, 2025

Navigating Some Murky Political Waters – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—June 1, 2025

The Honeymoon is Over – “The Sunday Political Brunch” June 8, 2025

It’s All about Epstein and the Economy – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – August 3, 2025