JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram expressed his views about Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) ahead of its 2025 Investor Day on Nov. 12, 2025.
• CVX shares are consolidating after recent moves. Get the latest updates here.
Analyst View
Jayaram writes that he expects Chevron to emphasize its disciplined approach to managing macro and geopolitical volatility.
The company will likely outline how its portfolio generates cash flow to support growth under a moderately conservative price outlook, adds the analyst.
Also Read: Chevron’s Big Projects Start Paying Off And There’s More Ahead, Analyst Says
The analyst says that the investor day’s key points may include a detailed roadmap through the end of the decade.
This may comprise disciplined capital spending, technological innovation, and ongoing commitment to dividend growth and predictable share buybacks, adds the analyst.
Jayaram expects Chevron to provide an update on its power partnership with GE Vernova, which could Chevron’s substantial Permian gas production.
The analyst sees a 1.7% production CAGR from 2025–2030, while assuming a reference price of $65/bbl and $3.75/Mcf.
Also, the analyst projects a 6% cash flow CAGR and an annual cash return yield of 8%–9%.
Changes Since Last Investor Day
The analyst notes that since Investor Day in February 2023, Chevron has strengthened its portfolio through the HES merger and TCO FGP reaching full capacity.
Oil and gas prices have fallen from $81/bbl and $3.29/Mcf, OPEC+ output has increased, inflation and trade tensions persist, and global GDP growth is sluggish, adds the analyst.
Jayaram writes that despite Middle East conflicts and tighter Russian sanctions, oil trades in the low-to-mid $60s, while U.S. natural gas benefits from LNG growth and rising AI-driven power demand.
Recent Earnings Release
Last month, the energy giant’s adjusted earnings were $1.85 per share, down from $2.51 a year ago but above the consensus estimate of $1.71.
Operationally, U.S. and global production rose 27% and 21% year-over-year, respectively, in the quarter.
CVX Price Action: CVX shares are up 0.19% at $155.25 at publication on Monday.
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