While the overall impact on American dairy has been less severe than initially projected, the U.S. has notably suffered losses in key Asian markets. Between February and July 2025, the U.S. saw a 6% reduction in exports to China and a sharp 12% decline in exports to the Philippines, which are the third and fourth largest U.S. export markets, respectively. Concurrently, Australian exports to China rose by 5% in the year leading up to September 2025. This was partially driven by China sourcing additional product from Oceania and Argentina, as Australian supply coincided with domestic production easing from previous highs.
The shift in procurement patterns is particularly evident in specific product categories. For instance, Chinese buyers imported 23% more Australian cheese, particularly fresh varieties, during the period. Meanwhile, New Zealand, Australia’s regional competitor, also benefited substantially, increasing its exports to key markets like China by 7% and to Southeast Asia by 5% in the six months to July 2025. This surge was attributed both to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and to higher prices for European dairy products.
Despite the losses in China and the Philippines, U.S. dairy exports demonstrated resilience in other regions, increasing by 2% overall from February to July 2025 compared to the previous year. The U.S. managed to send larger volumes of products, such as cheese and butter, to markets where its prices are comparatively lower than other major exporting regions, notably Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. This indicates a re-routing of American supply chains to markets less affected by the current trade dispute.