It estimated that tariffs and policy uncertainty could weigh on eurozone growth by around 0.7 pps between 2025 and 2027.
European businesses expect a sharper hit from US tariffs and trade frictions in 2026, after limited impact in 2025 due to front-loading, according to a survey by BusinessEurope.
It estimated GDP losses of 0.5–0.6 pps next year, and around 0.7 between 2025 and 2027.
Most firms reported reduced competitiveness and rising costs, urging tariff stability and simplified customs to restore predictability.
While policy uncertainty eased after the July 2025 EU–US agreement, many companies continue to express concern over the unpredictability of future tariff measures. A September 2025 follow-up survey, drawing 342 company responses, highlights persistent challenges such as tariff volatility, regulatory divergence, and cumbersome customs procedures.
The survey stated that 12.8 per cent of respondents view the US as their main market, while 55.7 per cent consider it one of a few key international markets. A further 15.2 per cent treat it as a secondary or occasional market, and 7.1 per cent say it is not currently important.
Nearly 73 per cent of surveyed firms report moderate to significant negative effects, and 59 per cent note reduced competitiveness in the US due to rising costs. The 50 per cent duties on steel, aluminium, and copper products are seen as especially damaging, pricing many European exporters out of the market and ending long-standing commercial ties.
About 47 per cent of companies say they are uncertain about the long-term future of these tariffs, 35.2 per cent face higher costs, and 32.1 per cent struggle to determine product coverage. Supply chain disruptions affect 17.8 per cent, while only 3.1 per cent have obtained exemptions.
BusinessEurope stressed that restoring stability, predictability, and regulatory alignment is vital for maintaining European competitiveness in the US market. The group urged both sides to accelerate implementation of the Joint Framework Agreement and prioritise a swift resolution of Section 232 tariffs.
Looking ahead, European firms identified three key priorities: ensuring tariff stability, simplifying customs procedures, and enhancing regulatory cooperation. Such measures, they argue, would reduce costs, restore confidence, and strengthen the foundations of transatlantic trade and investment.
The survey based on input from 36 national business federations across the EU and neighbouring countries including Britain, Switzerland, Turkiye, and Ukraine, aligns with European Central Bank.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)