Sports Mole previews Thursday’s World Cup Qualifying – Europe clash between Norway and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Within touching distance of their first World Cup for 28 years, Norway could confirm a cherished spot at next summer’s finals by beating Estonia on Thursday.
The Group I leaders have picked up maximum points so far, and only a miraculous Italian comeback can stop them hanging onto top spot.
Match preview
With at least a playoff place wrapped up for some time now, Norway will qualify directly for World Cup 2026 if they better Italy’s result in midweek; otherwise, they will have to finish the job in Milan this weekend.
Having kicked off with a stunning 3-0 defeat of the Azzurri back in June, Stale Solbakken‘s side have accrued 18 points from six games so far, while finding the net freely.
Erling Haaland alone has already struck 12 times throughout the campaign, and Norway just need to score five more to record the best European qualifying tally this century.
Only last month’s friendly draw with New Zealand halted the Landslaget’s streak of nine straight wins across all competitions, which included an 11-1 victory over Moldova and a 5-0 thumping of Israel.
So, it is no wonder that Solbakken’s side are poised to end almost three decades of Norwegian hurt by qualifying for a first World Cup since 1998.
Even slipping up against Estonia would still leave Norway’s fate in their own hands before Sunday’s finale – they have a +26 goal difference compared to Italy’s +10 – but few expect them to drop points on home turf.
When the nations last met – in Tallinn, last summer – only a second-half Haaland goal separated the sides, despite Norway dominating both possession share and shot count.
At Ullevaal, the visitors will expect to face similar treatment, as another unsuccessful qualifying campaign draws to its close.
Already eliminated from contention, Estonia cannot finish in the top two – or even third – and Thursday’s fixture will be their last in Group I.
Aside from four points taken off fellow minnows Moldova, Jurgen Henn‘s men have been beaten in all their other matches, including last month’s 3-1 home loss to the Italians.
Sitting 130th in FIFA’s latest world rankings, the little Baltic nation should at least avoid finishing last; however, facing Norway’s firing squad is not an ideal way to sign off.
Norway World Cup Qualifying – Europe form:
W W W W W W
Norway form (all competitions):
W W W W W D
Estonia World Cup Qualifying – Europe form:
W L L L L D
Estonia form (all competitions):
L L L D L D
Team News
Once again, Norway will be without their captain Martin Odegaard – at least on the pitch – as he is still sidelined by a knee injury.
The Arsenal man is set to support his teammates in Oslo and Milan, but fellow midfielders Sverre Nypan and Felix Horn Mhyre have been left out.
At the back, Solbakken has been able to recall Genoa defender Leo Ostigard, who missed last month’s camp with a broken rib.
Up front, Jorgen Strand Larsen usually plays third fiddle to main men Haaland and Alexander Sorloth; Antonio Nusa, Oscar Bobb and Andreas Schjelderup are all contenders to join them in a stacked Norwegian attack.
While Haaland needs four more to match Robert Lewandowski’s UEFA record of 16 goals in qualifying, Estonia have collectively scored only seven so far.
Rauno Sappinen and Mattias Kait have notched two apiece, but the latter is currently unavailable due to injury; Gent defender Maksim Paskotsi has also pulled out.
So, 102-cap skipper Karol Mets will need a new centre-back partner, and that pair will start ahead of Arsenal-owned Werder Bremen goalkeeper Karl Hein.
Norway possible starting lineup:
Nyland; Ryerson, Heggem, Ajer, Wolfe; Berg, Berge; Bobb, Sorloth, Nusa; Haaland
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Hein; Schjonning-Larsen, Mets, Kuusk, Saliste; Soomets, Palumets; Yakovlev, Shein, Saarma; Sappinen
We say: Norway 4-0 Estonia
After edging a relatively close contest in Tallinn, this time Norway should blow Estonia away.
Hungry to make their lead at the top of Group I even more watertight, the hosts will win well, setting themselves up for a qualification party at San Siro.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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