In this edition, CW looks at the escalating crisis between the U.S. and Venezuela.

Marco Rubio ⬆ 

Forget Pete Hegseth’s pushups and tire flips—it’s Lil’ Marco who’s out-macho-ing everyone with government toppling. ¡Viva el Caudillo del Caribe! … while the secretary of war is reduced to posting boat-strike videos on X like a Helldivers streamer showing off his orbital precision strikes. 

María Corina Machado ⬅➡

Won the Nobel peace prize in October. Endorsed Trump’s Venezuelan buildup as “absolutely correct” and “clear and courageous” in November. The peace laureate’s moral high ground was just the vantage she needed for calling in her own orbital strikes. 

Lindsey Graham ⬆  

Finally found a war he can sell to the MAGA faithful by calling it “protecting America from being poisoned.” Striking Syria (“Or Iran will nuke Charleston!”), saving the Kurds (“a stain on America’s honor”), and launching a war with Iran (“Hit them hard!”) all went nowhere. Try, try and rebrand. 

Cártel de los Soles ⬆  

Last year’s U.S. enemy No. 1 chart-topper, MS-13, has gone gold, and newcomer Tren de Aragua just lost its crown. The designated terrorist org (as of last July) is rising with a bullet straight to the top—only problem is no one in the region thinks such a band—er, cartel—actually exists. 

War Powers Act ⬇  

If Congress isn’t willing to guard the power of the purse, why would anyone think they’d bother with the power of war? The 1973 law designed to prevent another Vietnam is now just a speed bump for the various regime change plans being floated by the Trump administration. War powers? We hardly knew her. 

John Bolton ⬇  

In Trump 1.0, he pushed for maximum pressure on Maduro and plotted for Venezuelan regime change with Juan Guaidó. In Trump 2.0, the FBI is raiding his home. From national security adviser to national security target. 

Originally a staple of Newsweek’s print edition, Conventional Wisdom used arrows to track whose stock was rising or falling in the political circus. We’re reviving it in the digital age because the problem it lampooned—hyperbole and partisan certainty masquerading as insight—has only intensified.

CW assigns arrows—up, down, or sideways—to the figures and forces shaping current events. The arrows don’t predict the future or claim special insight. They capture the prevailing winds of the moment, uncluttered by tribal howling. In an era when partisan media reinforces rather than questions assumptions, CW operates from the center—skeptical of left and right alike, committed to puncturing inflated reputations and recognizing overlooked truths.