The climate summit, COP30, unfolding this week and next at the edge of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil, is a big one as far as UN meetings go. A decade after the historic Paris Agreement was signed, countries are due to submit their updated pledges to reduce national emissions by the year 2035.
The aggregate of those commitments, or Nationally Determined Contributions, will give us the answer to a crucial question – is the world on track to keep dangerous climate change in check?
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres opened the summit with a stark message:
“The hard truth is that we have failed to ensure we remain below 1.5 degrees … This is moral failure – and deadly negligence.”
As a number of Interpreter contributors have pointed out, large implementation gaps remain even where countries have made commitments, and the world’s second largest emitter, the United States, is now running in the opposite direction.
These are indeed serious challenges. But there are reasons for optimism, too.
Despite jitters over costs and the not inconsiderable risks of holding the meeting, the potential rewards for a country in Australia’s position are far greater.
Early analysis from Climate Resource indicates that based on commitments as of October, countries have, in aggregate “affirmed the ambition to broadly follow a straight line to net zero targets”. In other words, countries are broadly sticking with their climate action commitments, rather than following Trump for the exit.
This means that the Paris Agreement is working, even if we must pick up the pace.
In the UN’s latest synthesis of submitted targets, another striking picture emerges. Should countries fulfil their targets, total greenhouse gas emissions are projected to fall to around 12% below 2019 levels. That is a stark contrast to the trajectory the world was on before the Paris Agreement was adopted, which would have seen emissions increase by between 20–48% by 2035.
Source: UNFCCC, “Nationally Determined Contributions Synthesis Report – Update”
Another way of putting it is temperature. While overshooting a 1.5°C rise is now almost inevitable, the COP process has bent the trajectory down from a world which was heading to 4°C or more of global warming to about 2.3– 2.5°C now.
Obviously, still more needs to be done. But climate change debates can often fall into a nihilistic assumption that it’s too late to make a difference, or that the rest of the world is quitting the fight.
In fact, the opposite is true.
Overshooting the 1.5°C target doesn’t mean temperatures can’t be brought back down with concerted action. It just requires action now on this long-term goal.
Further, temperature goals should not be seen as a simple pass or a fail. As Guterres said in his statement, “every fraction of a degree means more hunger, displacement, and loss – especially for those least responsible.”
Australia is in a unique position. Nationally, the country contributes about 1% of total greenhouse gas emissions. But, if you take into account the emissions “shipped” overseas as the world’s third largest fossil fuel exporter, its carbon footprint rises to about 4.5%. Australia also has a direct stake, acutely exposed to droughts, floods, bushfires, coastal inundation, heatwaves, and damage to infrastructure by extreme weather – risks which are all amplified by climate change.
The emissions embedded in Australian fossil fuels – regardless of where they are burned – are of direct consequence to the wellbeing of Australians.
Economics further bolsters the imperative as fossil fuels enter a period of structural decline. The International Energy Agency shows that, based on stated policies, fossil fuel demand will peak by 2035. Recently released Treasury modelling in Australia suggested Australia’s coal production would decrease by 72% to 2050, while gas and LNG production would decline by 67%.
This means Australia is well positioned to benefit from the global energy transition. As the world decarbonises, energy-intensive industrial manufacturing – such as of iron and steel – will relocate to where energy costs are the cheapest. Australia’s mineral and renewable energy wealth, as well as its proximity to the world’s largest and fastest growing source of energy demand – Asia gives it an edge in the race to become one of the world’s leading suppliers of green goods. By some estimates, in doing so Australia could also contribute to a reduction of up to 10 per cent in global emissions and more than replace the value of our annual fossil fuel exports.
Demonstrations via candlelight in Belém, Brazil (COP30)
So, what of Australia’s bid to host COP31 with the Pacific? Hosting a COP, which has been likened to the diplomatic Olympics, is no easy feat, let alone doing a credible job of it in less than a year.
Australia’s bid remains locked in a standoff against Türkiye. With a decision due by the end of next week, the pressure is on.
Despite jitters over costs and the not inconsiderable risks of holding the meeting, the potential rewards for a country in Australia’s position are far greater.
Australia’s ability to establish the green industries of the future will be determined by our leadership, our diplomatic engagement, and our trade partnerships across the region and world. Presiding over the COP puts us in the box seat.
Leading would also strengthen two key relationships in our region: by amplifying the voice of some of the world’s most vulnerable Pacific island nations, and helping the world’s economic engine, Asia, decarbonise.
With a direct stake in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change, as well as the chance to position our economy for the future, COP31 can be the catalyst in bringing together the interests of our nation, our region, and the world.