Submission Statement: China’s belligerence against Taiwan has undergone a massive shift from occasional military exercises triggered by political developments in Taipei, to a sustained military presence around the island nation in a manner that impinges on Taiwan’s sovereignty but remains or appears far below the threshold of a conflict.
So, the question at this point is where are things headed for China and Taiwan from here on.
China appears to be escalating its tactics aimed at undermining the confidence of residents in Taiwan’s offshore islands in their own government through coercion by undertaking grey zone tactics as well as coast guard patrols inside restricted waters around these islands.
In addition to that China is also moving fast on infrastructure projects linking these islands with itself that hold promises of economic advantages for the island residents, as well as undertaking concrete actions to incentivise the residents on these islands to migrate to mainland China.
All of this creates enough ground to suspect a possible attempt by China to absorb one of Taiwan’s outlying island groups whenever circumstances are sufficiently conducive in Beijing’s view.
80% of the pain and 1% of the gain if China does so.
Right now Taiwan, China and the rest of the world live in this geopolitical diplomatic ambiguity. All sides make do in this ‘make believe’ situation without having to take strong decisions. Taking over the rather inconsequential islands removes ambiguity and forces parties to choose sides, in a way. The response isn’t very likely to benefit China at least not from the perspective of, say, Taiwan, Japan, Western Europe or the US.
Doing this emboldens the Taiwanese independence movement which can then lead to even further escalation.
China could’ve taken these small islands near it’s shore any year for the last what 50 years? Chiba has has restrained from doing so because it would give only a small symbolic victory but with very real costs.
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Submission Statement: China’s belligerence against Taiwan has undergone a massive shift from occasional military exercises triggered by political developments in Taipei, to a sustained military presence around the island nation in a manner that impinges on Taiwan’s sovereignty but remains or appears far below the threshold of a conflict.
So, the question at this point is where are things headed for China and Taiwan from here on.
China appears to be escalating its tactics aimed at undermining the confidence of residents in Taiwan’s offshore islands in their own government through coercion by undertaking grey zone tactics as well as coast guard patrols inside restricted waters around these islands.
In addition to that China is also moving fast on infrastructure projects linking these islands with itself that hold promises of economic advantages for the island residents, as well as undertaking concrete actions to incentivise the residents on these islands to migrate to mainland China.
All of this creates enough ground to suspect a possible attempt by China to absorb one of Taiwan’s outlying island groups whenever circumstances are sufficiently conducive in Beijing’s view.
80% of the pain and 1% of the gain if China does so.
Right now Taiwan, China and the rest of the world live in this geopolitical diplomatic ambiguity. All sides make do in this ‘make believe’ situation without having to take strong decisions. Taking over the rather inconsequential islands removes ambiguity and forces parties to choose sides, in a way. The response isn’t very likely to benefit China at least not from the perspective of, say, Taiwan, Japan, Western Europe or the US.
Doing this emboldens the Taiwanese independence movement which can then lead to even further escalation.
China could’ve taken these small islands near it’s shore any year for the last what 50 years? Chiba has has restrained from doing so because it would give only a small symbolic victory but with very real costs.
According to [Betteridge’s law of headlines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines)? No.
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