Iceland relies on a critical network of ocean currents that wrap around the Atlantic and distribute warmth to the north. As scientific data grows, the probability of slowdowns or even a shutdown of this system – AMOC – increases. In response, the government of the country took an unconventional step: it recognized the risk as a threat to national security and began a higher level of preparedness for possible consequences of such an event.
Our climate, economy and security are closely linked to the stability of the ocean currents around us.
– Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson
AMOC – the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – is a nearly looping system of currents that works like a large conveyor belt: warm water from the south and the tropics is brought up to the north, cools, sinks, and returns southward, forming a global circulation of heat.
When it comes to the most severe climate scenarios, the collapse of AMOC often ranks among the top risks in scientists’ lists.
A growing body of data points to a slowdown of AMOC: rising global temperatures disrupt the delicate balance of heat and salinity on which its strength depends. Science has not yet determined a clear probability or time frame for a collapse, but some studies hint at the reality of an event within this century.
This cannot be regarded as a low-probability risk any longer given the evolution of science in recent years.
– Stefan Rahmstorf
The consequences of stopping AMOC would be massive: abrupt changes in global weather and climate, sea-level rise in various regions of the United States and Europe, disruption of monsoon systems in Asia and Africa, and a significant cooling in Europe with possible southward expansion of sea ice to Great Britain.
According to Rahmstorf, Iceland “would be closer to being at the center of serious regional cooling,” which would mean increased sea ice influence on the country’s territory – he noted this in an interview for CNN.
This is a threat to existence
– Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson
In September, Iceland’s National Security Council defined the potential AMOC collapse as a threat to national security – this is the first time a climate factor has received such status in the country. Such steps underscore the need for rapid coordination of efforts to assess risks, develop mitigation and adaptation plans, and strengthen infrastructure and key economic sectors sensitive to climate shifts.
What we know: the current climate could change so radically that adaptation may become impossible. In the short term, this is not only a scientific problem – it’s a matter of national survival and security.
– Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson
Analysts emphasize that Iceland and other countries may require close coordination at the highest level to assess the threat, develop pathways for mitigation and adaptation, and strengthen the infrastructure and economies of vulnerable sectors in the face of future climate changes.