Crude Oil prices have been oscillating in a sideways range for more than a week now. Brent Crude Oil has been moving up and down between $62.45 and $65.25 per barrel. Within this range, the Brent Crude closed the week at $64.40 per barrel.

As per the Short-term Energy Outlook released last week by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Crude Oil price is forecast to fall to $55 next year. An increase in oil inventories due to higher production than the demand has been cited as the reason for the price drop by the EIA.

On the domestic front, the Crude Oil Futures contract traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) broke its support at ₹5,250 per barrel but did not sustain. The contract has risen back from the low of ₹5,157. It closed the week at ₹5,342 per barrel.

Here is our analysis on where the Crude Oil price is headed this week:

Brent Crude ($64.40)

The short-term picture continues to remain weak. As such the recent sideways move could just be a pause before the next leg of fall. Resistances are at $65.50 and $66.70. As long as the price stays below these resistances, the downtrend will remain intact.

Chances are high for Brent Crude Oil to break the support at $62.45. Such a break can take it down to $60-$59 or even $57.50.

MCX Crude Oil (₹5,342)

The bounce seen towards the end of last week is unlikely to sustain. Resistances are at ₹5,400 and ₹5,530-5,550. A rise above ₹5,550 is less likely. That might need some strong trigger.

We can expect the MCX Crude Oil contract to reverse lower either from ₹5,400 itself or after a rise to ₹5,530-5,550. That leg of fall can drag the contract below ₹5,200 to target ₹5,000 on the downside. It will also keep the downside open to see ₹4,800-4,750 over the medium term.

Trade Strategy

Last week we suggested going short on a break below ₹5,230. The trailing stop-loss at ₹5,200 would have been triggered for that.

Traders can take fresh short positions at ₹5,380 and ₹5,480. Keep the stop-loss at ₹5,620 initially. Trail the stop-loss down to ₹5,330 as soon as the contract goes down to ₹5,280. Revise the stop-loss down to ₹5,240 and ₹5,180 when the price touches ₹5,190 and ₹5,120 respectively. Exit the shorts at ₹5,040.

Published on November 15, 2025