BlackSky Technology (BKSY) Jumps on $30 Million Defense Contract and Q3 Loss—Is Revenue Visibility Improving?

Earlier this month, BlackSky Technology announced it secured a multi-year contract exceeding US$30 million to provide its Gen-3 high-cadence tactical intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance services to a strategic international defense customer, alongside reporting third quarter 2025 earnings results with revenue of US$19.62 million and a net loss of US$15.34 million. This contract showcases growing international adoption of BlackSky’s advanced space-based intelligence capabilities, while steady revenue guidance highlights the company’s focus on long-term business expansion despite recent losses. We’ll assess how this multi-year international defense contract could influence BlackSky’s investment narrative and future revenue visibility.

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BlackSky Technology Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in BlackSky Technology, you likely need to believe in the company’s ability to convert its Gen-3 constellation investments and expanding international defense customer base into more predictable, recurring revenues. The new US$30 million multi-year contract helps address concerns around customer commitment and ramps up visibility for revenue growth, but the company’s growing net losses and cash burn remain a key risk in the short term, progress on margin improvement will be critical going forward.

The just-announced international defense contract is especially relevant for understanding near-term catalysts, as it converts an early-stage opportunity into a secured multi-year revenue stream. This may help lessen some revenue volatility and show early traction for Gen-3 services, supporting BlackSky’s focus on international expansion, although ongoing net losses and the need for additional capital still weigh on the business story.

However, investors should be alert to the risk that, despite headline contract wins, many customer agreements are still early access or trial-based, meaning …

Read the full narrative on BlackSky Technology (it’s free!)

BlackSky Technology’s narrative projects $230.4 million revenue and $16.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 30.1% yearly revenue growth and a $102.5 million increase in earnings from -$86.1 million today.

Uncover how BlackSky Technology’s forecasts yield a $27.29 fair value, a 107% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other PerspectivesBKSY Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Simply Wall St Community users have published nine fair value estimates for BlackSky Technology ranging from US$5.84 to over US$35.42 per share. With expectations for accelerated Gen-3 service adoption as a recurring revenue catalyst, you may want to compare alternative views in light of these varied community opinions.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on BlackSky Technology – why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
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Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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