After US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping shook hands in Busan last month, the headlines highlighted smiles and tariff rollbacks. Washington hailed it as a “massive victory”, saying China had pledged to buy 12 million tonnes of American soybeans by January and at least 25 million tonnes annually for the next three years. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade surged and farmers in the US Midwest cheered.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared that “our great soybean farmers, who the Chinese used as political pawns” were back in business. For many in rural America, this sounds like long-awaited redemption. Yet beneath the celebration lies a quieter truth: soybeans are no longer Washington’s weapon; they are Beijing’s insurance policy.

The deal may look like a triumph for Trump, but it quietly affirms how deeply global power has shifted.

Soybeans once symbolised US dominance in agriculture. In 2017, China bought 57 per cent of US soybean exports, a share worth more than US$12 billion. When tariffs escalated a year later, that figure collapsed to about US$3 billion as China turned to Brazil and Argentina. Purchases did recover somewhat after 2019, but they never returned to pre-trade war levels.

Over the last three years, US shipments to China have averaged around 53 per cent of total exports, compared with nearly 60 per cent before the dispute. From January to August this year, China imported only 218 million bushels of US soybeans, a 78 per cent decline from the previous year, while Brazil captured an estimated 93 per cent of the market.

When tit-for-tat tariffs on US soybeans rose past 114 per cent in April, Chinese crushers simply switched suppliers. They booked record volumes from Brazil. Argentina briefly suspended export taxes in September to boost dollar reserves, easing the channelling of more soybeans Beijing’s way. Additionally, ongoing and planned rail expansions from Brazil’s Mato Grosso do Sul to Pacific ports could secure faster, long-term supply chains to Asia.

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Soybeans: China’s new bargaining chip in trade war with US?

Soybeans: China’s new bargaining chip in trade war with US?