When asked for whom they would vote if the Saeima elections were held tomorrow (rather than next October, when they are scheduled), 9.5% of respondents said they would vote for the opposition party LPV, thus moving the party to first position in the ratings. 

There was good news for Prime Minister Evika Siliņa with news that number of supporters of her New Unity party has increased – 9.3% of voters would support it. Back in July, 7% of those surveyed promised to vote for the party, thus the party has experienced a significant rise despite decidedly choppy waters in the three-party ruling coalition.  

Another coalition party, the Progressives, are in third place, having maintained their position in the ranking, although support for the party has decreased. 6.8% of respondents would vote for the Progressives in October, while 8% of respondents expressed support for the party in July.

The opposition United List is in fourth place, with 6.5% of respondents supporting it. The National Alliance is in fifth place in the rating, with support from 6.4% of respondents. In July, the National Alliance was in first place in the party rating with 9.7% support, so its support appears to have nosedived.  

The Greens and Farmers’ Union, which was supported by 5.8% of respondents in October, has also experienced a decline from 6.6% in July. Meanwhile 4.4% would vote for the Sovereign Power party, which is not currently in the parliament and only 3.6% for the For Stability! party, which appears to have lost a lot of support since its breakthrough at the last Saeima elections – with its previous voters perhaps defecting to LPV. 

The only other party to poll more than 2% is Harmony (Saskaņa), which for many years was among the top parties but now appears to be a shadow of its former self.

But as always with Latvian political polls, a huge chunk of the electorate is either undecided or uninterested. 22.2% say they don’t know which party they would support and 16.2% say they don’t intend to participate in the elections at all. Taken together, that means well over a third of potential voters are up for grabs if the parties can interest them in the political process. 

According to sociologist Arnis Kaktiņš, the October ratings were largely influenced by the issue of the Istanbul Convention and whether Latvia should break ranks with the rest of Europe and exit the treaty. 

“It was big, loud. There is no doubt that he has left an impact on these ratings. If our survey had ended one week earlier, I have no doubt that all those ratings would have been much different,” said Kaktiņš. 

If the Saeima elections were held now and voters acted as they promised in the poll, projections show eight parties would overcome the 5% threshold (that’s 5% of votes cast, not 5% of the electorate) and enter the Saeima: New Unity, Latvia in First Place, the Progressives, the National Alliance, the United List, the Greens and Farmers’ Union, Sovereign Power and For Stability!.

Political scientist Lelde Metla-Rozentāle pointed out that “the number of voters who think they may not come to the elections or most likely will not come is increasing. So, recent activities around the Istanbul Convention have probably caused even greater disappointment and confusion as to why it makes sense to get involved in political processes and influence them.” 

In turn, political scientist Juris Rozenvalds said that “the number of people who say they will not vote has increased. Perhaps this is also due to the impact of these political debates in the Saeima on the minds of voters.”