Brussels – Minimal, contained, yet present. Growth is there, at least according to Eurostat’s preliminary data on EU and eurozone gross domestic product for the third quarter of the year. Between July and September 2025, the GDP in the euro area increased by 0.2 percent and in the European Union by 0.3 percent compared to the previous quarter. An anaemic growth, but ongoing, since, even if at a “zero-point” level, the eurozone recorded positive trends: +0.6 percent in the first quarter, +0.1 percent in the second, and now +0.2 percent, certified by the European Statistical Institute.
Of course, the German figure jumps out at you: zero. In the third quarter of 2025, Germany’s economy came to a standstill, as did Italy’s. Also in Italy, GDP is at zero in the third quarter, after the contraction in the second quarter (-0.1 percent). The leading eurozone economies are therefore struggling, which affects their overall resilience. In this context, Spain seems to have had a different pace since the beginning of the year: the Iberian economy appears to be suffering less and growing more, at least so far. For France, the issue of disorderly public accounts remains, and efforts are needed to reconcile the adjustment of imbalances without stifling productivity and competitiveness.
The Eurostat data will be helpful for the European Commission for its assessments. On Monday (17 November), the EU executive will present its autumn economic forecasts, which will clarify what Brussels expects in terms of growth, inflation, and the trend in public accounts. Considering the GDP print, one can expect a new warning about moderate growth held back by geopolitical uncertainties and cautious growth estimates. Although, to be fair, on the immediate outlook, Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis already went out on a limb. Ultimately, growth should be slightly better in 2025, only to decline next year.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub