Ethiopia and Eritrea Edge Toward a Renewed War in the Horn of Africa

The 2022 peace agreement alienated factions of the authortarian TPLF/EPRDF, and Eritera (which seen it as a stabbing in the back), ignited the Ahmara conflict when Abiy government turned on the Fano and has waged a war in ahmara against former allies of the Fano.

I wouldnt be surprised to a see a coalition of the fano- the breakaway TPLF faction (aligned with Eritera), and Eritera as some orthodox Habasha alliance against the Oromo dominated Prosperity party, the endf, and the oromo nationalists like the OLf/OLa/Quueryo nationalists.

True aggressive shuttle diplomacy, win-win compromises, taking into comsideration both ethiopia landlock statsus , and Eriteria concerns about the 2022 peace agreement sidelining their concerns about tolf/tigryan nationalistic threats to Eritea, and de- escalation over the recent events in tigray and Afar, and both nations backing proxies are all taken into consideration.

I very much sympathize with Ethiopia considering all they went through since the dreg, the famines, the 1974-1991 civil war, atheistic communism, the loss of Eritera and access to the red sea, the growing Somalia- Eritera- Egypt axis aimed at weakening and possibly destroying ethiopia, the 27 year tyranny, oand grabs by tplf/EPRDF businesses and tycoons, various massacres, mass privatization, the orthodox schism, looting of the economy by tplf/EPRDF, and the suffering of the ethiopian people.

However a win-win situation, actual shuttle diplomacy, resolving Ethiopia landlack statsus, rehabilitating tigray integration back into ethiopia, taking Eritera concerns into consideration over Assab, and leaving the t in power in tigray, and stability on the horn of Africa is very mich needed concerning the red sea security and trade routes.

However with the current adminstration in al-sisi pocket and President Trump dislike of abiy for his winning the noble peace prize before he has, I very much doubt a real resolution will happen.