Former US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley has warned that the American and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities in June, while tactically effective, risk setting off a chain of destabilising consequences across the region.
Speaking to The National in New York and referencing an article he co-authored with veteran Palestinian negotiator Hussein Agha, Mr Malley said actions that appear to deliver short-term gains in the Middle East have repeatedly produced the opposite effect over time.
“Things that might succeed in the short term may have very different consequences long term,” he said, adding that the region’s history is “a whole list of military ‘successes’” that later backfired.
He pointed to Israel’s operations in Beirut and against the Palestinian Liberation Organisation in Tunis, the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the American intervention in Lebanon.
In each case, he said, “short-term, ‘victories’ end up boomeranging,” producing outcomes such as the rise of Osama bin Laden, strengthened Iranian influence in Iraq, the Taliban’s return to power, and the emergence of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“Our point is, don’t focus on the immediate, because this is a long movie,” he said.
Mr Malley said last summer’s attacks also demonstrated that “Israel had supremacy over Iranian airspace and extraordinary intelligence” about Iranian personnel and facilities. That, he argued, could weigh heavily on Iran’s calculations should it consider rebuilding parts of its nuclear programme.
“If Iran chooses to restore or resume its nuclear programme, it’s going to have to think many times, because it knows that Israel is watching and the US is watching,” he said.
The strikes “did set back Iran’s nuclear programme,” he added. “It didn’t obliterate it in the way that President Trump said, but it did set it back.”
Asked about a realistic outlook for US-Iran relations, Mr Malley said he could plausibly imagine either renewed military escalation or an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough under President Donald Trump.
“I wouldn’t be surprised” by further US-Israeli strikes, he said, but nor would he be shocked if Washington and Tehran reached a nuclear understanding that indefinitely suspended Iranian enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and restored UN inspections.
Still, he warned that any such diplomacy would face obstacles. Deep mistrust in Tehran, where leaders believe Mr Trump “betrayed them not once, not twice, but three times,” has made the prospect of returning to negotiations increasingly difficult.
Shifting to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the war in Gaza, Mr Malley discussed his new book Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel-Palestine, written with Mr Agha.
Mr Malley, who has worked on Middle East policy under Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, said the book offers a close-up personal account of decades of US-mediated negotiations and why they have failed repeatedly.
“There were times when I thought peace was possible,” he said. “I think at Camp David in 2000, for example, when some of us thought we were almost there. But if you look back, none of the issues being negotiated by Israelis and Palestinians were even close to resolution.”
Robert Malley says Biden support of Israel was ‘tragic decision’ during war in Gaza
He added that while there may have been “moments when, with different circumstances, different leadership, different US policy, different attitudes from Israelis and Palestinians, peace might have been possible,” the sheer number of ideal conditions required should prompt deeper reflection.
“If that perfect alignment has never occurred, and we now are in a situation that is much, much worse than we were back in 1993, 1998, 2000, 2014, and all those times when people were seeking the two-state solution, then maybe that perfect alignment of stars is never going to happen,” he said.
“And we need to ask a deeper question, which is whether the objective itself is the right one.”
Asked whether the world was clinging to a fantasy by continuing to call for a two-state solution, Mr Malley said he understood why the idea persisted.
“Whether you’re a government official or you’re an activist, and you’re looking for something, particularly in the wake of the horrors that we’ve been witnessing for the last two years, you look for something that seems easy…and familiar,” he said.
“The two-state solution has become that refuge for people who are sort of hoping against hope that they will find something quick that will resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has caused such misery and such heartbreak and desolation and destruction and calamity over the years.”
“We need a solution, and Israelis and Palestinians need to find a way to coexist, but rather than sort of cling to the most immediate idea that’s out there since peace is not going to happen next month or even next year, let’s take the time to think about the deeper reasons about why it has failed for so long,” he added.
But even as he urged a broader rethink of the peace process, Mr Malley acknowledged the political realities shaping present-day negotiations.
Asked why Mr Trump succeeded in securing a ceasefire agreement when Mr Biden could not, Mr Malley said the Republican was prepared to do two things his predecessor was not.
“One was to put more pressure on Israel,” Mr Malley said. “I think he had that asset that President Biden didn’t have, but he was prepared to use whatever tools he had to tell [Israeli] Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu, ‘It’s done. It’s over’.”
“He also opened up a channel to Hamas, which is unheard of in the history of any US administration,” he added. “President Trump … doesn’t seem to be constrained by any of the habits – good or bad – of American diplomacy … [he] decides if we’re going to try to get a deal with Hamas, we need to talk to them.”
Mr Malley said that while Mr Biden “wanted the end of the war”, his team “failed to take the decisive measures needed to bring it about”.
Instead, Mr Malley said, the administration chose to “maintain a bear hug” with Israel to avoid showing public divisions that could be exploited by Hamas, Iran or Hezbollah.
“That was a tragic decision, because it ensured that the war would continue and that the deaths would pile on,” he said.
Mr Malley expressed scepticism about Mr Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan for Gaza’s future governance.
“There is so much in this that is distasteful and there’s so much of it that could go wrong, because there’s no details,” he said.
“The Palestinians, once again, are being told in detail how they need to govern themselves. There’s going to be this so-called Board of Peace and a technocratic government overseen by it, which will micromanage what the Palestinians can do.
“Where is the micromanagement of how Israel governs the occupied territories or manages settlement expansion? There is so much in this that could go wrong because there are no details.”
Mr Malley questioned whether the plan could ever be implemented, given the deep mistrust among the parties involved.
“Hamas doesn’t want to disarm or give up its role, even if it no longer wishes to govern Gaza directly,” he said. “And Israel has never liked international forces not under its control.”
Mohammed bin Zayed MajlisSix large-scale objects on show
Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
Torrijos Palace dome
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pocketsBarings Bank
Barings, one of Britain’s oldest investment banks, was
founded in 1762 and operated for 233 years before it went bust after a trading
scandal.
Barings Bank collapsed in February 1995 following colossal
losses caused by rogue trader Nick Lesson.
Leeson gambled more than $1 billion in speculative trades,
wiping out the venerable merchant bank’s cash reserves.
Naga
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Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team’s top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo’s house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pocketsUAE currency: the story behind the money in your pocketsIf you go…
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
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if you go
The flights
Emirates flies to Delhi with fares starting from around Dh760 return, while Etihad fares cost about Dh783 return. From Delhi, there are connecting flights to Lucknow.
Where to stay
It is advisable to stay in Lucknow and make a day trip to Kannauj. A stay at the Lebua Lucknow hotel, a traditional Lucknowi mansion, is recommended. Prices start from Dh300 per night (excluding taxes).
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogenChromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxideUltramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica contentOphiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on landOlivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
RESULT
Valencia 3
Kevin Gameiro 21′, 51′
Ferran Torres 67′
Atlanta 4
Josip Llicic 3′ (P), 43′ (P), 71′, 82′
23-man shortlist for next six Hall of Fame inductees
Tony Adams, David Beckham, Dennis Bergkamp, Sol Campbell, Eric Cantona, Andrew Cole, Ashley Cole, Didier Drogba, Les Ferdinand, Rio Ferdinand, Robbie Fowler, Steven Gerrard, Roy Keane, Frank Lampard, Matt Le Tissier, Michael Owen, Peter Schmeichel, Paul Scholes, John Terry, Robin van Persie, Nemanja Vidic, Patrick Viera, Ian Wright.
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Understand What Black Is
The Last Poets
(Studio Rockers)
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah’s proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
Company%20profile
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Tips to keep your car cool
Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
Park in shaded or covered areas
Add tint to windows
Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
Pick light interiors – choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
More on Quran memorisation:Mohammed bin Zayed MajlisTHREE
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In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent