BRUSSELS – Bulgaria’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by 3 percent this year, according to the European Commission (EC) in its Autumn Economic Forecast. This represents an increase from the 2 percent growth rate projected in the institution’s spring forecast. For next year, the EC expects a growth of 2.7 percent – also an increase compared to the spring forecasts of a growth rate of 2.1 percent for 2026. For 2027, the European Commission forecasts a slowdown in GDP growth to 2.1 percent.
The EC’s assessment shows that inflation in Bulgaria was 2.6 percent in 2024. The European Commission forecasts that inflation in Bulgaria, harmonized according to European Union standards, will reach 3.5 percent in 2025, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the institution’s spring forecasts. For the next year, the EC expects consumer prices to rise by 2.9 percent, which represents a significant increase compared to the institution’s spring forecasts of a growth rate of 1.8 percent. For 2027, the European Commission forecasts an acceleration of inflation to 3.7 percent.
Regarding the labor market in Bulgaria, the EC indicates that it remains stable. With an unemployment rate of 4.2 percent in 2024, the EC expects the figure to decrease to 3.5 percent in 2025, after which it will slightly increase in 2026 and 2027, reaching 3.7 and 3.8 percent, respectively. However, the expected level of unemployment is lower compared to the EC’s spring estimates, which projected an unemployment rate of 4 percent for the current year and 3.8 for 2026.
Economic growth in Bulgaria reached 3.4 percent in 2024, driven by private and public consumption. Investments accelerated in the first half of 2025, stimulated by increased absorption of funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). However, consumption and investments are expected to decline in the second half of 2025 due to weaker contributions from the public sector, resulting from lower than planned state revenues, the European Commission notes.
In 2025, the deficit is expected to remain at 3 percent of GDP. Public investments in 2025 are expected to be higher than in 2024, due to the accelerated implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and planned deliveries of defense equipment. Against the backdrop of a second wave of deliveries of defense equipment in 2027, estimated at 1.2 percent of GDP, and in the absence of compensatory measures, the deficit is projected to increase to 4.3 percent, the European Commission further predicts.
In its Autumn Economic Forecasts, the EC expects the EU’s GDP to grow by 1.4 percent in both 2025 and 2026, with the growth rate slightly accelerating to 1.5 percent in 2027. A similar trend is expected for the eurozone, with growth of 1.3 percent in 2025, 1.2 percent in 2026, and 1.4 percent in 2027.
Bulgaria will officially adopt the euro and will become the 21st member of the eurozone on January 1, 2026 – 19 years after the country’s accession to the European Union. (October 19, 2025)