Weather models shifted colder on Wednesday, especially for late November and early December. Atmospheric G2 noted colder temperatures are expected to hit the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. between November 24–28, with additional cooling seen in the central U.S. through early December.
While NatGasWeather described current demand as moderate to low, the potential for a colder pattern building into December may offer support to prices, particularly as heating demand picks up.
Inventory Expectations Shift Sentiment
Market focus is squarely on Thursday’s EIA report. A storage draw of 11–17 Bcf is expected for the week ended November 14, a notable deviation from the five-year average injection of +12 Bcf.
If realized, this would mark a supportive inflection in inventory trends, especially following last week’s bearish +45 Bcf build. Inventories as of November 7 were 0.3% lower year-over-year but still 4.5% above the five-year average, suggesting ample supply but rising seasonal demand.
Production Remains Elevated, Capping Upside Potential
Despite tightening inventories, production remains a key headwind. Lower-48 dry gas output was 109.4 Bcf/d on Wednesday, up 7.5% year-over-year. The EIA also raised its 2025 production forecast to 107.67 Bcf/d, underlining sustained supply strength.
Although Baker Hughes reported a drop in active gas rigs to 125—down from a recent 2.25-year high—production remains near record levels, limiting the market’s ability to rally significantly on weather or storage data alone.