The poll from the Institute of Irish studies/University of Liverpool/Irish News again put Sinn Fein as the largest party with a 26.6% share of first preference votes, while Alliance and DUP were both predicted 18.2%.
Many voters might assume that if Alliance secures a shock result and finishes second, party leader Naomi Long can become the next deputy First Minister.
But this is politics in Northern Ireland where things are never as simple as they seem.
The rules are set out in the St Andrew’s Agreement of 2006, but can read more like a riddle than a set of instructions to casual observers.
Equally, the deputy First Minister has always been appointed from the biggest party in the second largest designation.
However, after the St Andrew’s Agreement, a new rule was introduced – that the largest party overall could nominate a First Minister, even if it wasn’t part of the largest designation.
In such a scenario, the largest party within the largest designation would then nominate the deputy First Minister.
So in theory, the Alliance Party, which designates as ‘other’, could nominate a First Minister in the unlikely event it finishes as the largest party.
But if it finishes second, it can’t nominate a deputy First Minister if it sticks to its designation, as it is highly likely that either unionism or nationalism would be the largest designation, and the largest party from that section will therefore get the post.
Commenting on the results of the latest poll, an Alliance spokesperson said the party would seek to reform the designation system rather than change their political stance.
“Alliance knows the only poll which matters is on election day. Notwithstanding whatever the result is, we support the Good Friday Agreement and endorse its underlying principles,” they said.
“However, we have always supported reform of the structures and in light of both recent developments and potential future ones, that case is stronger than ever.
“Our political institutions need transformation – the people of Northern Ireland deserve better, with government reflecting our changing society and incentivising cooperation rather than entrenching division.”
Political commentator David McCann told the Belfast Telegraph that a second place finish for Alliance would still have huge implications.
“Alliance coming second and not being in line for Deputy FM is going to cause some head-scratching amongst many of its voters. You’d expect the second-largest party gets the post, as has been the case since 1998. But our designation system is what stands in that way. Not only does this system drive Alliance round the bend when it comes to votes in the chamber, but it also hinders it in taking up some Executive posts.
“Politically the potential of Alliance in second would be huge, not just because it’s a good election story but because of the long-term consequences,” he said.
“This could potentially lead to the upending of our designation system and a rethink about how Executives are formed in the future. Our focus has been on the historic nature of Sinn Fein potentially becoming the largest party, but the rise of Alliance could be the sleeper issue we are not paying enough attention to.”
Other Executive positions are allocated to political parties using the d’Hondt system, except for the Justice Minister which is allocated using a cross-community vote.
Traditionally this role has been filled by the Alliance Party but has also been previously held by the independent unionist Claire Sugden.
Should Alliance finish second, it is not unreasonable to expect it may be able to claim another Executive Ministry.
The DUP has consistently said it will not enter the Executive unless there is substantial reform to the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Party leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the Ulster Unionist leader Doug Beattie have also refused to say to date if they would consider appointing a deputy First Minister if Sinn Fein become the biggest party as expected.
Just goes to show how little I knew about things over there – I didn’t know who Alliance were until the other article about the polling, but I’d have expected them to be almost automatically deputy FM. If it’s (as most likely) republican and unionist groups one and two, then that’s a load of shit when you’ve excluded what 20% of voters appear to want.
How do the votes in the chamber work out if Alliance finishes second but is denied the Deputy First Minister spot? Could they sink Executive formation as a whole in order to force changes to the designation system?
Also (as an aside) I think it’s hilarious that the effect of the St Andrews agreement will offer the DUP much more power in the Executive (ie the post of DFM) than they will have won at the ballot box, but they’re so incompetent and so stupid that they will refuse to take that unfairly offered power.
4 comments
With the [Alliance Party finishing neck and neck with the DUP](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/53d61874d4d05d98d24bbf03376f61b312ec8c4f/0_0_901_618/master/901.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=bc85926f44aecf955ab25d6541f86474) in a recent poll, it raises further questions about just who could be sitting around the table of a new Executive.
The poll from the Institute of Irish studies/University of Liverpool/Irish News again put Sinn Fein as the largest party with a 26.6% share of first preference votes, while Alliance and DUP were both predicted 18.2%.
Many voters might assume that if Alliance secures a shock result and finishes second, party leader Naomi Long can become the next deputy First Minister.
But this is politics in Northern Ireland where things are never as simple as they seem.
The rules are set out in the St Andrew’s Agreement of 2006, but can read more like a riddle than a set of instructions to casual observers.
As explained on the [Factcheckni website](https://factcheckni.org/articles/explainers/the-process-of-nominating-the-first-and-deputy-first-ministers/), the First Minister is normally appointed from the largest party in the largest designation (unionist, nationalist or other).
Equally, the deputy First Minister has always been appointed from the biggest party in the second largest designation.
However, after the St Andrew’s Agreement, a new rule was introduced – that the largest party overall could nominate a First Minister, even if it wasn’t part of the largest designation.
In such a scenario, the largest party within the largest designation would then nominate the deputy First Minister.
So in theory, the Alliance Party, which designates as ‘other’, could nominate a First Minister in the unlikely event it finishes as the largest party.
But if it finishes second, it can’t nominate a deputy First Minister if it sticks to its designation, as it is highly likely that either unionism or nationalism would be the largest designation, and the largest party from that section will therefore get the post.
Commenting on the results of the latest poll, an Alliance spokesperson said the party would seek to reform the designation system rather than change their political stance.
“Alliance knows the only poll which matters is on election day. Notwithstanding whatever the result is, we support the Good Friday Agreement and endorse its underlying principles,” they said.
“However, we have always supported reform of the structures and in light of both recent developments and potential future ones, that case is stronger than ever.
“Our political institutions need transformation – the people of Northern Ireland deserve better, with government reflecting our changing society and incentivising cooperation rather than entrenching division.”
Political commentator David McCann told the Belfast Telegraph that a second place finish for Alliance would still have huge implications.
“Alliance coming second and not being in line for Deputy FM is going to cause some head-scratching amongst many of its voters. You’d expect the second-largest party gets the post, as has been the case since 1998. But our designation system is what stands in that way. Not only does this system drive Alliance round the bend when it comes to votes in the chamber, but it also hinders it in taking up some Executive posts.
“Politically the potential of Alliance in second would be huge, not just because it’s a good election story but because of the long-term consequences,” he said.
“This could potentially lead to the upending of our designation system and a rethink about how Executives are formed in the future. Our focus has been on the historic nature of Sinn Fein potentially becoming the largest party, but the rise of Alliance could be the sleeper issue we are not paying enough attention to.”
Other Executive positions are allocated to political parties using the d’Hondt system, except for the Justice Minister which is allocated using a cross-community vote.
Traditionally this role has been filled by the Alliance Party but has also been previously held by the independent unionist Claire Sugden.
Should Alliance finish second, it is not unreasonable to expect it may be able to claim another Executive Ministry.
The DUP has consistently said it will not enter the Executive unless there is substantial reform to the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Party leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the Ulster Unionist leader Doug Beattie have also refused to say to date if they would consider appointing a deputy First Minister if Sinn Fein become the biggest party as expected.
*Allan Preston*
May 03 2022 07:10 PM
Add:
>Belfast Live: [*NI election debate: Rating the Stormont leaders’ performances in battle for votes*](https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/news-opinion/bbc-ni-election-debate-rating-23853646)
>
>How the party leaders fared in the second and final TV debate of the Assembly election campaign
–
>Bloomberg: [*Johnson’s Brexit Pains Mount With Crucial Northern Ireland Vote*](https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/johnson-s-brexit-pains-mount-with-crucial-northern-ireland-vote)
>
>Northern Ireland elections on Thursday could mark a major shift in the region’s sensitive political balance, and undermine Boris Johnson’s bid to redraw the terms of the U.K.’s split from the European Union
Just goes to show how little I knew about things over there – I didn’t know who Alliance were until the other article about the polling, but I’d have expected them to be almost automatically deputy FM. If it’s (as most likely) republican and unionist groups one and two, then that’s a load of shit when you’ve excluded what 20% of voters appear to want.
How do the votes in the chamber work out if Alliance finishes second but is denied the Deputy First Minister spot? Could they sink Executive formation as a whole in order to force changes to the designation system?
Also (as an aside) I think it’s hilarious that the effect of the St Andrews agreement will offer the DUP much more power in the Executive (ie the post of DFM) than they will have won at the ballot box, but they’re so incompetent and so stupid that they will refuse to take that unfairly offered power.