The effect of President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to be felt around the world. The impact of Trump’s tariffs continues to rip through the logistics and transportation sectors, with major ports experiencing a steep drop in imports after records were set earlier this year, and volumes throughout the supply chain rolling over.
“Freight volumes in the third quarter and October reflect what we’re seeing in the broader goods economy, with shippers drawing on inventory built up earlier in the year to reduce their exposure to tariffs and weak consumer demand,” said Ken Adamo, DAT chief of Analytics. “As a result, the traditional peak holiday shipping season looks virtually non-existent this year,” Adamo said.
The latest U.S. Census Bureau data, released Wednesday after a more than month-long delay due to the government shutdown, showed a significant decline in imports in the month of August after additional tariffs went into place, $18.4 billion less than the level of July imports.
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Recent freight container tracker data shared by the nation’s second-busiest port, the Port of Long Beach, shows that Trump’s tariffs will continue to chip away at ocean freight heading to the U.S.
“You’re looking at the 16 percent decrease in Chinese imports coming to the United States,” said Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach. “The decrease is across the board,” Cordero said.
“The good news is we’re still in the black,” Cordero said. While he said a fourth quarter decline was expected, what comes next is pivotal. “It remains to be seen, the resilience of the American consumer and their spending activity, and the next two months will be really telling about the diminishment of that growth,” he said.
The ongoing effects of the tariff measures described are contributing to widespread disruptions across the transportation and logistics sectors. Import volumes are declining, major ports are seeing reduced activity, and supply chain flows appear to be shifting as businesses adjust to new cost pressures and changing consumer behavior.
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Industry observers suggest that companies are drawing down previously built-up inventories, reducing the need for additional freight during what is normally a peak shipping period. As a result, shipping patterns are becoming less predictable, and expectations for a seasonal rebound have weakened.
“We are now forecasting nearly a 16.6 percent year-over-year decline for U.S. imports in December, after a 12% decline in Q3,” said Ben Tracy, vice president of strategic business development at real-time container tracking platform, Vizion. “There is no bounce back in sight,” Tracy said.
At the same time, port officials and freight analysts indicate that the broader economic environment will be crucial in determining how long these trends continue. Consumer demand, trade relationships, and the response of domestic industries will all help shape the next phase of activity.
While forecasts point toward further declines in import levels, especially from key trading partners, the coming months will reveal whether the sector can stabilize or whether additional pressures will emerge.