Crude oil prices fell sharply, breaking their two-week sideways range on the downside. The Brent Crude Oil broke the $62.45-$65.25 per barrel range to make a low of $61.90 last week. The push from the US for a peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war pulled the oil price down last week. Data showing an increase in the US Crude Oil inventories also weighed on the prices last week.

Although the price has bounced back into the range, the price action last week leaves the bias negative. Brent Crude Oil closed the week at $62.56 per barrel, down 2.8 per cent.

On the domestic front the Crude Oil Futures contract also fell about 2.7 per cent. The contract continued its struggle to rise past ₹5,400 per barrel. It made a high of ₹5,390 and fell sharply to close the week at ₹5,197 per barrel.

As mentioned, the bias looks negative on the charts and further fall is likely from here. Here is our analysis on where the crude oil prices are headed from here.

Brent Crude ($62.56)

Brent Crude Oil is facing strong resistance at $65 and is struggling to break above it. This is very clear from the price action over the last few weeks. That leaves the Brent Crude Oil vulnerable to a fall to $60 in a week or two.

The price action around $60 will need a close watch. A bounce from this level can give some relief and take the price higher towards $64-65 again. In that case, $60-65 can be the trading range for some time.

But if Brent Crude Oil breaks below $60, it can come under more selling pressure. In that case, there is a danger of seeing $55 on the downside.

MCX Crude Oil (₹5,197)

The resistance at ₹5,400 held very well as expected. The MCX Crude Oil contract fell below ₹5,200 in line with our expectations.

The outlook is negative. Immediate resistance is around ₹5,260. Above that, ₹5,350-5,400 will continue to act as the next strong resistance zone. The MCX Crude Oil contract can fall to ₹5,080 and even ₹4,970 in the short term. It will also keep the downside open to see ₹4,800-4,750 in the coming weeks.

Trade strategy

The trailing stop-loss ₹5,330 would have been triggered for the short positions we had recommended at ₹5,380.

Traders can take fresh short positions at ₹5,240 and ₹5,280. Keep the stop-loss at ₹5,360. Trail the stop-loss down to ₹5,210 as soon as the contract falls to ₹5,170. Revise the stop-loss down to ₹5,180 and ₹5,120 when the contract touches ₹5,140 and ₹5,090 respectively. Exit the shorts at ₹5,060.

Published on November 22, 2025