Relations Between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain: Five Years to the Abraham Accords, Two Years to October 7

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1. – my opinions:

   – Bahrain is the one feeling that it didnt reap the economic investments or rewards it was expecting, also the relations with Bahrain have become less open, and rocky since oct.7th as Bahrain hasnt assigned a new envoy at the Bahraini embassy in the Israel (hampering Diplomatic ties to a small degree), and dragged it feet accepting the credentials of the Israeli ambassador , ambassadors were recalled in the wake of oct.7th

   – the UAE relations are cooling with the far-right bibi govt so as long as the smotrich, and Ben Gvirs of the coalition remain in power, or influences the coalition diplomatic or milltary decisions. Whatever it it is the feeling from the Gulf, that Israel is purposely allowing tensions at the Temple Mount to weaken the Jordanian Wafk position in violation of the statsus QUO agreements regarding holy sites in Jerusalem. The UAE like all the other Gulf states seemed to wink and nod (while publically codemning) the Israeli attacks weaking Iran, but also alarmed the Gulf states that Israel abilities in attacking Iran meant the Gulf was vulnerable to other powers like Turkey, Israel, or Iran could easily attack the Gulf states. The UAE has also set redlines concerning annexations in the west Bank would freeze further integration, and normalization for Israel in the region. The UAE has also summoned the Israeli ambassador two times when tensions sparked at the Temple mount, and suspended Israeli companies participation in the Dubai airshow.

   – Both the UAE, and Bahrain were mortified at the attack on Qatar (despite the past tensions, and blockcade of Qatar from 2017 to 2021), as a violation of Gulf security, and aviation of Gulf states sovereignty, despite blockades, and rivarlies,Gulf collective security and collective responses to violations are taken seriously, such as the Attack on the Saudi embassy in Iran in 2016, the Iranian revolution in 1979 (that spurred the Gulf states to give vast support to Iraq against Iran in the horrific Iran- Iraq war), or when Iraq invaded Kuwait sparking Desert Storm (even Oman which usually is non-interventionist and positions itself as a mediator joined that coalition with boots on the ground). Huge condemnation across the Gulf states of the airstrikes that killed a policeman that was a Gulf national, from a prominent tribe with tribal reaches across the entire GCC states.

   If I had to make predictions the Gulf states relations of the UAE, and especially Bahrain are going to be colder, while keeping the behind the scenes , technological transfers, intelligence sharing , and security ties with Israel, while entering a colder peace on cultural exchanges, certain economic deals (ie – emirates is suspending flight to tel aviv for the rest of 2026, as Emiratis traveling to Israel is now non-existent) and to tourism (ie – person to person normalization will not likely freeze, similar to Egypt and Jordan cold peace policies regarding Israel, where tensions exsit, but behind the scenes relations regarding intelligence sharing, technological transfers, security cooperation, and certain goals ike containing Turkey and Iran still exsit, but person to person normalization is dead, and media is hostile)

   What do you all think?

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