Psychologists pretend to be nice people. But if they are, how come so many psychological experiments are fundamentally cruel? Take the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment, which is often hailed as proof that delayed gratification is a good thing.
Back in 1970 some innocent children were given a marshmallow and asked to wait 15 minutes before eating it. If the kid waited, they were given a bonus marshmallow. The experiment was possibly inspired by Oliver Twist saying: “Please sir, I want some s’mores.”
In follow up research, psychologists said that the children who waited were more likely to reach a higher education level and have a lower body mass (proof that you cannot get fat on marshmallows). The ones who broke early were doing more than eating a marshmallow. They were actually throwing their lives away.
American Pilatus customers are going through a similarly cruel experiment now.
Last week President Donald Trump said that he has reached a reciprocal trade agreement with Switzerland and Lichtenstein (but as they do not make aircraft in Lichtenstein we will ignore it from now on, apologies if you live there).
Switzerland will remove tariffs on various fresh and dried nuts (key ingredients of Toblerone), fish and seafood, fruits, chemicals and spirits such as whiskey and rum. It will also establish tariff-free quotas for American poultry, beef and bison (apparently a key ingredient of meat fondue).
In return the US will give Switzerland its minimum 15% tariff rate. Most excitingly, it has also agreed that Swiss aerospace tariffs will be 0% (it also agreed to do this on aerospace exports from Korea – but we will ignore this for now, again apologies).
“NBAA welcomes the return to zero tariffs for aircraft and parts, which will have a significant positive impact on US leadership in global aerospace safety and innovation,” said Ed Bolen, president and CEO of NBAA. “These new agreements not only re-establish equitable trade relations with the Republic of Korea and Switzerland but also enable the aviation industry to continue its major contributions to US jobs and the economy.”
This is of course good news. But – and it is a big but – the implementation date for this has not been announced.
This is crucial. The Swiss-US agreement was announced on November 14th. It took seven weeks for the July UK-US trade agreement to be implemented. This was the first agreement that President Trump had made so perhaps took longer. The EU-US agreement on aircraft parts was announced on July 27th and came in on September 1st.
This means that US buyers with an upcoming delivery have an agonising wait. They may be lucky and avoid a 39% hit or they may not. “There is a lot of space between here and there,” says Phil Winters, vice president, aircraft sales and charter management, Western Aircraft, the largest US Pilatus dealer. “The framework is in place but no one knows when it will actually happen.”
Pilatus and the US dealers deserve real credit for how they have managed 39% tariffs. They have shared the financial hit with customers. Hopefully this will be remembered when owners buy their next aircraft. But it is particularly frustrating for everyone to be paying tariffs when you know they will soon be cancelled.
“We have light at the end of the tunnel,” says Winters. “We don’t think it is a train, but we are not out yet.”
President Trump could want to wait until he is at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in mid-January to announce implementation.
Like tariffs, the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment was also flawed and depressing. Later research showed that the children prepared to wait came from wealthier families. They were more likely to get to a higher level of education because of this. It had nothing to do with marshmallows. Poorer children (rightly) did not trust the cruel psychologists. It was all rubbish.
Pilatus owners have already had to delay gratification because of waiting lists to get their aircraft. They do not need more tariff stress. As science has proved, life is not a bag of marshmallows.
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