Godfred Bokpin Economist And Professor Of Finance At The University Of GhanaGhana is approaching the end of its International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme in mid 2026, but finance expert Professor Godfred Alufar Bokpin has warned the country could be walking a fiscal tightrope without clear safeguards.
Speaking at the Deloitte Economic Dialogue, Professor Bokpin cautioned that the 2026 National Budget offers no clear plan for maintaining discipline once IMF oversight ends. “We know how Ghana behaves when we are under the IMF programme and when we exit,” he said, referencing the country’s history of reverting to excessive spending and money printing once external supervision is lifted.
The budget, he noted, does not adequately detail structural mechanisms the government intends to deploy for locking in fiscal responsibility. He suggested solutions like a technical extension of IMF oversight similar to other African nations such as Zambia, or robust domestic mechanisms to keep the economy on track.
Spending inefficiencies compound the risk. Only 34 percent of the capital expenditure allocation was executed during the first three quarters of 2025, according to budget data analysed by parliamentary opposition members. The programmed allocation was GH¢26.6 billion but actual releases reached only GH¢11 billion, causing delays in infrastructure and slowing growth.
Professor Bokpin’s concerns are not new. In April 2025, at a Canada Ghana Chamber of Commerce event, he warned that any exit from the IMF programme could be disastrous, stating he found it difficult to see how Ghana would survive after the programme. He noted that repayment of IMF loans starting in 2026 could put severe pressure on public finances.
He also linked recent sharp utility tariff hikes to IMF conditions, which were necessary for approval of the $360 million balance of payment support. President John Mahama’s government has indicated it will not extend the IMF programme despite the economy still recovering.
Beyond immediate fiscal concerns, Professor Bokpin reflected on Ghana’s long standing growth challenges. “Since 1992, every budget has talked about macroeconomic stability, which is not an end in itself but a means to an end. Ghana’s economy is yet to take off since independence, though it was once doing better than Malaysia and Singapore,” he lamented.
He highlighted that while Malaysia never sought an IMF bailout, Ghana has turned to the IMF 17 times for support. He pointed out that Ghana has spent similar amounts to Singapore and Malaysia for development but lags significantly behind these two countries.
Speaking on TV3’s Key Points programme in May 2025, Professor Bokpin emphasised that meeting IMF targets in the short term is not enough. “The real test is not whether we meet the IMF targets this year or next. The real test is whether, in 2027 and 2028, when the IMF is no longer watching, we will uphold the same standards,” he said.
Ghana is currently implementing a US$3 billion Extended Credit Facility with the IMF. The three year programme began in 2023 and is aimed at stabilising the economy following a period of high inflation, rising debt levels, and sharp depreciation of the cedi. It is expected to conclude in the first quarter of 2026.
Professor Bokpin noted that past experience suggests Ghana often loses discipline shortly after exiting IMF support, particularly in election years. He said the temptation to overspend ahead of the 2028 general elections could undo hard won progress unless safeguards are put in place.
For Professor Bokpin, fiscal discipline is only meaningful if it lasts beyond the IMF programme. Without safeguards, the country risks falling back into historical patterns of overspending, losing the chance to turn stability into real growth, jobs, and long term resilience.