President Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District—where a special election will be held next week—in part because of shrinking support from independent voters, according to a poll released Wednesday.
Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The poll will be welcome news for Democrats hoping to flip the traditionally conservative district. The race pits Democratic legislator Aftyn Behn against Republican veteran Matt Van Epps. Van Epps is favored, but polls suggest the race could be closer than expected in the district composed of parts of Nashville, its suburbs and more rural areas.
It also reflects growing dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, even in areas where he handily won against then-Vice President Kamala Harris last November. Trump carried the district by more than 20 points. He remains popular with Republicans in the district, but independents—a critical group—have soured on him, the poll found. This has major implications for not only next week’s special election but the 2026 midterms.
What To Know
The Emerson College poll showed that a slim majority of voters in the district disapprove of his job performance. Although Trump enjoyed a solid approval rating when he returned to office in January, his numbers have steadily fallen amid growing concerns about the economy and affordability.
Forty-nine percent of respondents said they disapproved of Trump’s job performance, while 47 percent gave him positive marks, according to the survey. Among independents, 59 percent said they disapprove of Trump to 34 percent who approve.
His approval among Republicans in the district held strong, as it has nationwide, with 88 percent approving and 8 percent disapproving. Less than 4 percent of Democrats approved of Trump’s job performance, while 95 percent disapproved.
The poll also showed Behn trailing Van Epps by about 2 percentage points (49 percent to 47 percent). They are vying to replace former Representative Mark Green, who left Congress this year for a private-sector job.
A plurality of voters—38 percent—listed the economy as the most important issue facing Tennessee. An additional 15 percent said housing affordability is the most important issue, while 13 percent said threats to democracy and health care are the biggest issues for them.
The survey polled 600 likely voters from November 22-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Other polls have shown Trump’s approval rating fall as his term continues. A recent poll from YouGov and The Economist showed 38 percent of Americans approving and 57 percent disapproving of his job performance. It surveyed 1,677 adults from November 21-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College polling, in the polling memo: “President Trump’s approval rating is a stark reversal from last November, when he carried the district by 22 points. The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve.”
CNN data analyst Harry Enten, on X on Tuesday: “Trump’s support with GOP voters remains, to quote Bob Seger, like a rock. 87% approve of him, equal to 6 months ago & higher than any other 21st century prez had within their own party at this point in term 2. MTG knew going up vs. Trump in a primary is like facing a buzzsaw.”
What Happens Next
Election Day in the Tennessee special election is set for December 2.