Wednesday’s low of $4.390 landed nearly squarely on the intermediate 50% retracement level at $4.397, just above the 50-day moving average at $4.360. This zone is acting as both support and a trend indicator.
On the upside, the 200-day moving average at $4.732 represents potential resistance and a trigger point for an acceleration higher. A decisive break above that level could open the door for extended gains, while a failure to hold the $4.360 support would signal renewed downside pressure.
Storage Draw Expected Below Seasonal Norms
The consensus estimate for this week’s EIA report calls for a modest 5 Bcf draw. Last week’s report proved bullish, showing a 14 Bcf withdrawal versus expectations of 12 Bcf and well below the five-year average build of 12 Bcf for the same period. As of November 14, inventories stood 0.6% below year-ago levels but remained 3.8% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating adequate domestic supplies heading into winter.
European Gas Weakens on Diplomacy, Mild Temps
Across the Atlantic, European natural gas prices slipped 0.7%, with the Dutch TTF benchmark settling at €29.18 per megawatt hour. Hopes for progress in Ukraine-Russia negotiations and forecasts for milder early-December temperatures weighed on prices.