The recent earnings posted by NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) were solid, but the stock didn’t move as much as we expected. We believe that shareholders have noticed some concerning factors beyond the statutory profit numbers.

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earnings-and-revenue-history

NasdaqGS:NVDA Earnings and Revenue History November 27th 2025

Many investors haven’t heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company’s profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the ‘non-FCF profit ratio’.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it’s worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

NVIDIA has an accrual ratio of 0.43 for the year to October 2025. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, it produced free cash flow of US$77b during the period, falling well short of its reported profit of US$99.2b. At this point we should mention that NVIDIA did manage to increase its free cash flow in the last twelve months

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

As we have made quite clear, we’re a bit worried that NVIDIA didn’t back up the last year’s profit with free cashflow. As a result, we think it may well be the case that NVIDIA’s underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company’s potential, but there is plenty more to consider. With this in mind, we wouldn’t consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for NVIDIA (1 is a bit unpleasant!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.

Today we’ve zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of NVIDIA’s profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to ‘follow the money’ and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.