‘Scientifically, COP30 has been nothing less than a failure,’ researcher says • FRANCE 24 English

‘Scientifically, COP30 has been nothing less than a failure,’ researcher says • FRANCE 24 English

Now it’s time for perspective and the COP 30 talks have come to an end at the weekend. The result perhaps best summed up well with the word subdued. Whilst more funding for countries to adapt to the wrath of extreme weather was agreed, there was no explicit details to phase out fossil fuels or strengthen count’s inadequate emissions cutting plans which dozens of nations demanded. Well, joining us now is director of the Pottsam Institute for Climate Impact Research. That’s the German Institute seen as one of the world’s top environmental think tanks. He’s also professor in earth system science at the University of Potam. Yan Rostrom, thanks very much for being with us on the program. Um the COP 30 then I mean do you think it’s been a failure? Yeah, if you look at it scientifically the conclusion must be nothing less than a failure because we know that now 10 years after we signed the Paris agreement, we’re still increasing the emissions. We’re still seeing an acceleration of temperature rise and we’re seeing suffering among hundreds of millions of people across the world already today. And we need to very very rapidly bend the curve of emissions no later strictly speaking 2025 and reduce emissions by 5% per year globally. And this meeting was announced as the cup of truth and the cup of implementation. Not any longer negotiate text but rather focusing in on a work plan on road maps for acceleration away from fossil fuels and the meeting did not deliver that. You mentioned fossil fuels. I mean do you think that’s the main thing is that the crux of it and it hasn’t even talked about well maybe’ve talked about it but nothing in the final communicate. Well, you know, 75% of the greenhouse gas emissions that are heating the planet to a point beyond which we may be undermining, you know, livelihoods for billions of people across the world originates from fossil fuel burning. So, the first thing we need to do is to phase out coal, oil and gas. This is well known for decades and still these negotiations that are set up to avoid dangerous climate change cannot address the key source of the planetary crisis we’re facing namely fossil fuel burning. So this is of course uh a huge paradox and and an enormous frustration. This is why it was so reassuring that the Brazilian COP presidency decided to take the bull by the horn and and start working on on a road map for accelerating the phase out of fossil fuels with monitoring with finance with responsibilities with accountability um addressing specifically the oil and gas and coal industries and still this was not possible to achieve at the COP meeting and we’re running out of time. you know, the remaining global carbon budget to be able to limit global warming within the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit that is signed on into the legally binding Paris agreement is soon disappearing. So, we’re in in a in a at a point where we are at real risk of not being able to hold the 1.5 limit within reach, which is sprinkled across all the text coming out of of COP. So everyone is kind of sending out false hopes in a way not addressing the source of the problem but still holding on to the wish of limiting warming to 1.5. There are other sources of the problem aren’t there? I mean there was some more uh funding for developing countries but a lot of people saying that needed to be far far bigger. Rainforest protection bearing in mind this was on the the edge of the Amazon was hardly mentioned at all either. No this is you know disappointment number two. It was a unique cop by placing it right at the heart of the Amazon rainforest. Scientifically, this is very significant because we know that it’s not enough to only phase out fossil fuels to limit warming beyond, you know, the dangerous level of exceeding 1.5. We also need to secure the carbon sinks in the big forest systems on planet Earth. 25% of the carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning is actually absorbed in the rainforest, in the tempered forest and in the boreal forest. So a road map to protect forests and a road map to accelerate phase out of fossil fuels was on the agenda. That that was the task for this COP and neither of them came came out in the final document. Where did it go wrong? I mean even before the COP started uh the US weren’t there, China weren’t there. Perhaps one of them at least needed to be there to to lead the charge if you like. They were absent in the first place. So it meant the whole thing just kind of drifted. Well, I mean, one should commend the Brazilian presidency. They did they did the best they could. They had a a very good diplomatic uh effort of getting all the countries together in what they called the much, which was an effort of of collective compromise building. China was there with a very constructive approach showing that green technology and the phasing out of fossil fuels is a pathway to a stronger economy. Despite that, by the end of the negotiations, there was this unwillingness to really start moving away from fossil fuels. And and it just proves again that you have the Arab states, China, but also big emerging economies like India that still are are unable or unwilling to to see the writing on the wall and and truly move away from the status quo, which is the simplest way forward in their view to just continue um the energy provision as business as usual. So it’s a it’s it’s a very unfortunate situation of not seeing the crisis for what it is but at the same time just just hoping that they can sit still in the boat without too many consequences. So as a climate scientist then put this into words for the rest of us who perhaps aren’t uh so invested or know so much about this. What does it actually mean for ordinary human lives? What does it mean for the ordinary uh civilian living in the world? This uh failure of this cup? Well, the failure of this cup means that we are inevitably going to breach the 1.5° C limit within the next 5 to 10 years. We will then start increasing temperatures, you know, at 1.6 1.7. We’re moving towards 2.5° CC of warming by the end of this century. If we continue as today as we sort of say the consequence of a COP 30 inability to start turning things around, the consequences of that is more droughts, more floods, more fires, more heat waves, heat waves that are actually lifethreatening to millions of people in the world, more human reinforced storms. This will cost the global economy billions of US dollars. We will also be approaching tipping points which means that the Amazon rainforest, tropical corre systems, the green and ice sheet, the green ice sheet may be crossing a tipping point somewhere between 1.5 and 2°C of warming. That would mean irreversible melting. It would not melt overnight, but it would not be possible to stop. And that’s equivalent to 7 meters sea level rise. So we’re talking big risks if we allow ourselves to continue on the path on the dangerous path that we’re following today. Y Ram, good to talk to you on the program today. Thank you very much for being with us. Director of the Potam Institute for Climate Impact Research there joining us there from Germany. Thanks very much.

A leading climate researcher has told FRANCE 24 that the conclusion of the COP30 summit at the weekend was scientifically nothing less than a failure. Johan Rockström is director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The German institute is seen as one of the world’s top environmental think tanks. Although more funding for countries to adapt to extreme weather events was agreed, there were no explicit details to phase out fossil fuels or strengthen countries’ inadequate emissions-cutting plans, which dozens of nations had demanded. Rockström spoke to us in Perspective.
#COP30 #environment #fossilfuels

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