The sharp expansion of American influence in the Middle East, the geostrategic repositioning of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and trillion-dollar investment initiatives are inevitably reshaping the South Caucasus, turning the region into a space of quiet competition and strategic realignment. Against this backdrop, Georgia has found itself at the intersection of several overlapping processes, some of which have yet to be openly discussed by the wider public.
To understand what lies behind the influx of “Arab investments,” what role the United States is playing, and why Georgia is approaching a period of major transformation without an adequate system of safeguards, News.Az spoke with Georgian political scientist Dmitry Lortkipanidze.
– Dmitry, why can the strengthening of the U.S.–Saudi Arabia partnership radically change the balance of power in the South Caucasus?
Source: Reuters
– Because Washington is reaching a new level of control over the Middle East — through economics, finance, and a strategic partnership with Arab capital. The United States views the Caucasus as an extension of the Greater Middle East rather than an independent geopolitical entity. This means that American policy transfers to our region the same governance architecture used in the Middle East: reliance on Semitic ethnic elites, support for their capital, and the use of investment flows as instruments of influence.
When Arab investments enter Georgia, they bring not only money but also an embedded vector of American interests. This is the part of the game that no one explains to society. We are not witnessing simple financial projects — we are seeing the creation of long-term U.S. geopolitical logistics through trusted capital capable of reshaping the social reality of the host country.
– You describe the South Caucasus as an “oasis prairie.” What does this metaphor mean?
Source: TASS
– The South Caucasus truly resembles an oasis surrounded by vast arid territories — from Syria and Iraq to the Arabian Desert. The key resource of the region is water, and this makes the territory a potential arena for future conflicts.
There is more water here than in many parts of the Greater Middle East. This means the region’s value increases in the eyes of global players. Our water resources will inevitably become objects of pressure, bargaining, and strategic control.
The Caucasus will increasingly be viewed as a platform for the resource security of external actors. This creates the conditions for a new form of turbulence — one that our national security system is not yet prepared to confront.
– What is the main gap in Georgia’s security under the new wave of investment pressure?
Source: Georgian GE
– The problem is that Georgia has still not defined its own defensive mechanism. We have not formulated a model of a security umbrella under which we are ready to operate.
When a country does not know which protection system it chooses — transatlantic, regional, or hybrid — any foreign investment becomes a potential risk.
Arab investments have sparked a wider debate. But the real questions run deeper: Who controls migration flows? Who owns key assets? Who manages demographic transformations? And what are the real limits of state sovereignty?
As long as these questions remain unanswered, time works against us.
– Georgian society continues to debate Arab investments. What is the fundamental cause of this concern?
– The concern is not about the investments themselves, but about the absence of a clear and transparent mechanism for risk prevention. Government structures limit themselves to general statements and do not provide a comprehensive threat assessment system.
Society wants to understand under what rules foreign capital enters the country, and how it affects the land market, migration, demographics, and security. But instead of clear analysis, people receive fragmented information, which creates tension.
– What steps should the government take first?
– A comprehensive legislative reform package is needed. Above all, modernization of the migration control system — from labor migration to investment migration.
As long as labor migration processes are left unregulated, the country loses control over vectors that directly affect national security. A centralized national system must be established, capable of responding in time to all vulnerabilities.
In addition, it is important to audit all existing residence permit regulations. Today, residence permit categories are so diverse that they are often used to bypass the system, especially through fictitious marriages. This is a significant and understudied problem.
– You mentioned the lack of public information on key international agreements. What do you mean?
Source: kuwaittimes
– Most citizens do not understand the risks arising from the readmission agreement with the European Union. Even fewer grasp the consequences of signing the UN Marrakech Pact.
The electronic labor migration registration system also remains non-transparent. People do not know which categories of arrivals pose the greatest risks, what mechanisms for obtaining residence permits are used by offenders, or how widespread fictitious marriages are.
And here is the key question: who is responsible for explaining this to society?
Where is the work of the media and state-funded platforms with a budget of one hundred million lari? Why do we not see educational programs, analytical shows, or official explanations?
As a result, informational silence becomes a tool of manipulation. People begin discussing secondary topics, losing sight of strategically important challenges.
– What is the solution?
– We must launch an expanded institutional dialogue between society and the state. Not behind-the-scenes consultations or isolated statements, but a broad national discussion platform.
The number of questions has long exceeded the volume of answers the state provides. As long as this imbalance persists, public trust will decline rapidly.
My position is simple: Georgia must stop being an object of someone else’s geopolitical game and become the subject of its own security.