Weekly Significant Activity Report – November 29, 2025

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1. SS: This post analyzes some significant geopolitical developments from November 22 and November 29 involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

   Major events for this time period included:

   1. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will not begin formal peace negotiations until Ukraine withdraws from Donetsk oblast, affirming the Kremlin’s hardline position ahead of a visit by US negotiators.
   2. Russian drones violated Moldovan and Romanian airspace in two separate incidents this week.
   3. A test launch of a Russian “Sarmat” super heavy intercontinental ballistic missile ended in catastrophic failure in Orenburg oblast, the second failed test in a row for the long-delayed system.
   4. Russia’s only launch pad for manned space missions was severely damaged during the November 27 launch of Soyuz MS-28 carrying US and Russian astronauts to the International Space Station.
   5. China released a new white paper on arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation.
   6. A private Chinese aerospace company, Lingkong Tianxing Technology, announced that it is prepared to mass produce cheap hypersonic missiles.
   7. Iran allegedly sought to recruit local spies for attacks on Israeli embassies in Africa.
   8. North Korea may currently possess two to three times as many nuclear weapons as currently believed. An expansion of its refining capability may allow it to develop an arsenal of over 400 bombs by 2040.
   9. North Korea has refortified positions along three-quarters of the demilitarized zone since the spring 2024 as part of Kim Jong-un’s new policy pivot away from reunification toward permanent division of the Korean peninsula.

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