CANVA
The coffee industry is facing a perfect storm: while global demand continues to grow with no signs of slowing down, external factors such as climate change and geopolitical instability are strongly impacting supply and driving up prices. In 2025, the beverage that millions consume daily is undergoing a transformation marked by environmental crises, international conflicts, and new sustainability requirements.
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According to the report The Changing Coffee Landscape published by Statista, coffee prices have reached historic highs due to a combination of climate shocks, logistical disruptions, and new trade policies. But what exactly is behind the sustained increase in coffee prices?
What effects does climate change have on coffee crops?
Coffee—especially the arabica variety—is extremely sensitive to climate. It requires very specific conditions to grow: average temperatures between 18 °C and 21 °C, high altitude, controlled humidity, and regular rainfall. However, global warming is destabilizing these conditions.
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A study cited in the Statista dossier estimates that more than 50% of the land currently suitable for growing arabica coffee could become inadequate by 2050, even under the most optimistic emissions scenarios. In the worst case, this loss of arable land could reach 59.5%.
This phenomenon is not theoretical. In recent years, the main producing countries—Brazil and Vietnam—have already suffered the impacts of extreme weather. In 2022, Brazil lost much of its harvest due to a combination of prolonged droughts and frosts. Although it partially recovered in 2023, 2024 again saw extreme rainfall and flooding. Vietnam, meanwhile, has experienced severe droughts that, combined with the abandonment of some crops for economic reasons, have reduced robusta production.
What is the relationship between international conflicts and coffee prices?
In addition to environmental effects, geopolitics has become a key factor in determining the final price of coffee. Several global tensions have directly influenced production and distribution costs.
Among the main factors highlighted in the Statista report are:
War in Ukraine: it has increased fertilizer prices, as Russia is one of the largest exporters of agricultural inputs for coffee-producing countries. This has raised production costs in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.
Red Sea attacks: attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels have diverted key shipping routes, increasing delivery times and shipping costs.
Trade tensions between the U.S. and Brazil: in August 2025, the United States imposed a 50% tariff on several Brazilian products, including coffee. This measure has partially halted imports and caused uncertainty in the world’s largest market.
These situations have created inflationary pressure on coffee, as higher logistical and operational costs are passed on to the final consumer.
How have coffee prices reacted to these crises?
Data analyzed by Statista shows a sustained increase in prices for the two main types of coffee:
Robusta—more climate-resistant and used in instant coffee and RTD beverages—tripled in price between 2020 and 2024.
Arabica, which dominates the specialty coffee market, doubled in value during that same period.
This surge is a direct consequence of reduced harvests, higher logistical costs, and a global demand that has not decreased—even with record prices.
Is demand still growing despite rising prices?
Surprisingly, yes. The report indicates that since the 2012/2013 season, global coffee consumption has grown by more than 20%, and 5% of that increase has occurred since the start of the pandemic. Even at record prices, demand remains stable or rising.
New markets have emerged strongly. Iran, Uganda, Burundi, Panama, and China rank among the countries with the highest growth in coffee consumption. In these cases, the boom is linked to younger consumers’ interest in coffee as a social experience and to the diversification of flavors in specialty coffee.
What strategies are being proposed in response to climate impacts?
The report notes that, faced with the loss of land suitable for arabica cultivation, producers have two main options:
Move crops to higher-altitude areas, where temperatures are cooler. This strategy faces regulatory obstacles, especially in countries exporting to the European market.
Replace arabica with robusta coffee, a variety more resistant to heat and drought. However, robusta has a lower perceived value among demanding consumers and is less used in the premium market.
An additional factor to consider is the European Union regulation on deforestation-free products, which will take effect in 2026. This law prohibits importing coffee grown in areas deforested after 2021. It will require producers to invest in traceability systems, potentially further increasing supply chain costs.
What role will sustainability and certification play in the future of coffee?
As costs and climate-related risks rise, consumers are paying more attention to the origin and sustainability of the coffee they buy. Although certifications such as Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance, and organic do not yet dominate the market, they are gaining ground in reputation and trust.
According to Statista, 26% of consumers are willing to pay more for organic coffee, and 24% would do so for products with the Fairtrade label. These figures reflect a shift in awareness that could influence how coffee is grown and marketed in the near future.
What can we expect in the medium and long term?
Coffee prices could stabilize slightly if certain geopolitical conflicts are resolved or if some harvests recover, but experts agree that the structural outlook will remain challenging. With rising demand, a climate-threatened supply, and new environmental regulations, coffee is no longer just a beverage—it is a reflection of global tensions and the dilemmas of modern consumption.
In this context, market players—from farmers to major chains—will need to adapt to a more complex environment, where resilience, innovation, and sustainability will be key to maintaining the balance between price, quality, and accessibility.