In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up 3.3 million barrels for the week ending November 28.
“This follows a 2.8 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing tight relative to our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model another increase in crude runs (+0.3 million barrels per day),” they added.
“Among net imports, we model a small increase, with exports (+0.2 million barrels per day) and imports (+0.3 million barrels per day) higher on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for an increase (+0.3 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists went on to note in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a smaller increase (+0.3 million barrels) in SPR [U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists also noted in the report that, “among products”, they “look for across the board builds (gasoline/distillate/ jet +2.7/+2.6/+1.0 million barrels)”.
“Amidst holiday/seasonal/other effects we see potential for volatility in these figures this week. We model implied demand for these three products at ~13.7 million barrels per day for the week ending November 28,” they added.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 2.8 million barrels from the week ending November 14 to the week ending November 21.
That report, which was released on November 26 and included data for the week ending November 21, showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 426.9 million barrels on November 21, 424.2 million barrels on November 14, and 428.4 million barrels on November 22, 2024. The EIA report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 411.4 million barrels on November 21, 410.9 million barrels on November 14, and 390.4 million barrels on November 22, 2024, this EIA report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.682 billion barrels on November 21, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were up 2.1 million barrels week on week and up 49.8 million barrels year on year, the report pointed out.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone on November 27, which focused on the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at the company, stated that “overall, the … data points toward a well-supplied market”.
“Higher refinery runs, rising imports, and broad product builds are slowly pushing inventories higher. The underlying trend remains one of a market leaning into surplus as we approach year-end,” he noted.
In a market comment sent to Rigzone on November 27, Maria Agustina Patti, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness, said the November 26 data from the EIA “confirmed a surprise inventory build of 2.77 million barrels, defying consensus expectations for a draw”.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on November 24, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 4.9 million barrels for the week ending November 21.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on December 3. It will include data for the week ending November 28.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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