https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-covid-induced-surge-in-house-prices-has-reached-a-tipping-point-get-ready-for-a-drop-1.4878831

20 comments

  2. Any day now.

    But seriously, I don’t see how the prices will fall unless people start being unable to pay their current mortgage or supply increases all of a sudden. The fact the rental market is so terrible also affects things as houses can be bought up and rented out for an easy 5% return per annum.

  3. Hopefully… April was the first month since the crash with negative global GDP growth, recession is coming.

  6. I don’t see what is going to cause house prices to drop and the article is not a convincing argument?

    If all those new build houses are built they will hold their price and maybe even rise, while, if there is something that causes prices to stabilise, all the second hand houses (in particular buy to lets which is the only second hand houses for sale I am seeing in the small part of Ireland I am trying to buy in) won’t be put up for sale.

  7. Covid isn’t the reason for the housing crisis, sure it temporarily agitated the situation, but if your sitting in your mams rubbing your hands at the thought of a housing price collapse you’ll be in the same spot with sore palms into your 50’s.

    There is no housing price collapse coming, there are not enough houses. Stagnation perhaps, not collapse.

  8. > We’ll be told that Ireland’s chronic undersupply makes it an exceptional case internationally. But these old tropes have never trumped the boom and bust dynamic.

    Old tropes!? When has there ever been supply issue as severe as now? That’s why prices are high. This author is talking out of their arse.

  10. What I can’t reconcile in this article is that the author states that “*Most of the current development in Dublin is being financed by international funds chasing returns in the build-to-rent sector. And underpinning these funds is the great financial experiment of the era, quantitative easing and low interest rates*”, but then goes on to say that “*The Central Bank is forecasting that about 25,000 new housing units will be built this year, rising to 30,000 in 2023 and 35,000 in 2024. The 35,000 figure is roughly the estimated level of demand in the market, although some maintain it is higher. This should exert further downward pressure on prices”*

    Surely if the financial backing for most of the current development dries up because rising interest rates make other uses of that capital more attractive, construction numbers will decline. Unless the author expects indigenous developers to take up the slack.

    He also neglects to mention the significant increases in the cost of materials required to actually build the homes in question. Does he think new build developers will just absorb those costs?

  12. The real estate agent Im buying from said she thinks prices will rise another 5-7 % before the end of the year.

    Could be bullshit tho.

  13. Read the same thing 5 years ago. There’s no tipping point. It’s always up. No end to this fucking madness

  14. Who’d have thought that printing money out of thin air and paying people off for two years to not work would lead to massive inflation and the price of everything going up?

  15. He even undermines the headline in the article, 35000 new housing units are needed every year, we still haven’t reached that level of building yet. And there are years of pent up demand to back fill as the 35000 level was needed for years. The worst thing I used to find about trying to find a place (renting or buying) was that the demand was so high you don’t have time to consider your choice. One friend said she spent looking at shoes than her current house, she bought the house 8 years ago. So yeah, it will be a while before they drop even based on his shoddy analysis.

  16. There are three scenarios that I am aware of in which the housing prices will fall.
    1) A drastic increase in supply
    2) A significant reduction in Irish population
    3) A major increase in the mortgage interest rates

    We all know that increase in supply has been brought up for many, many years and not acted upon by politicians. Ireland is also currently seeing an increase in population from emigration and refugees.

    If mortgage rates skyrocket, not only people will loose their homes, but most people might not be able to afford rent for a period of time. Yes, prices in that scenario will crash but at a scarily large cost to Irish residents.

  17. The FFG mandate failure to house at an affordable cost, lots of houses coming on the markets, REITs greed index is moving into severe sell sell sell when the bubble looks like a bursting

  18. Irish Times Weekend click bait. It is all too easy to get people in Ireland to click on anything to do with the housing crisis, especially one esposing false hope of some sort of affordability.
    We are building c. 25k house when we need 45-50k to keep up with demand, no shock drop coming unless like other comments here have said, recession and no more lending.

  20. Lol get ready for a drop, whereupon you still won’t be able to get on the housing ladder and the now cheaper property will be swept up by those with the capital to hoard supply and inflate the prices once more. Great news all round.

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