This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Denmark just ripped up its old growth script and penciled in a far stronger trajectory, hinting that Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) could be powering more of the country’s momentum than previously appreciated. The economy ministry now sees GDP expanding 2.6% in 2025, a sharp step-up from the 1.4% estimated in August, with 2026 nudged to 2.2% from 2.1%. Policy uncertainty has eased as US tariff questions settle, and officials say Denmark’s pharmaceutical engine could be positioned to keep production and exports high even as competitive pressures rise. It’s a reminder that one company’s global weight can possibly rewrite an entire macro outlook.
Yet this optimism arrives at a moment when Novo is navigating tougher terrain. The drugmaker is contending with cheaper copycats of Wegovy and Ozempic and intensifying rivalry from Eli Lilly (LLY) in the US, all while having trimmed earnings guidance four times this year. Concerns around broad job cuts and a potential drag on consumer confidence have hovered, especially after the government’s August growth downgrade tied partly to Novo’s share slump and US tariff risks. Still, Denmark’s third-quarter numbers delivered its fastest quarterly GDP expansion in almost four years, and Danske Bank analysts said earlier this week that Novo may be contributing more significantly to the economy than earlier assumed, underscoring the scale of its influence.
Novo has now completed 5,000 Danish layoffs announced in September, and the government expects these redundancies to gradually show up in unemployment data in the first half of 2026. Even so, officials argue the moves do not fundamentally alter the picture of a strong labor market. Pharma is still projected to drive growth aheadthough possibly at a softer pacewith the sector estimated to add 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth this year. And with the government forecasting economic growth of 1.6% in 2027, investors are watching a familiar dynamic take shape: a small Nordic country whose macro rhythm continues to be shaped, in large part, by its global pharmaceutical champion.