Timken’s fair value estimate has inched higher to $87.85, as analysts recalibrate expectations in light of a shifting industrial demand landscape. While the discount rate has ticked up to 9.40%, revenue growth projections remain essentially flat at 2.31%, reflecting a blend of cautious optimism and disciplined forecasting. Stay tuned to see how you can track these subtle but important shifts in Timken’s narrative as they evolve over time.
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🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Oppenheimer raised its Timken price target to $90 from $88 and reiterated an Outperform rating, arguing that a healthier industrial backdrop and management’s revised 80/20 based strategy could drive both revenue and margin inflection.
Oppenheimer highlighted new CEO Lucian Boldea’s vision, along with engagement from the recently promoted CFO and IR team, as positive signs for execution quality, portfolio evolution, and transparency, supporting the case for a rerating from what it views as a discounted valuation.
Citi also lifted its price target to $90 from $85 while maintaining a Buy rating, signaling confidence that Timken can outgrow the broader machinery group and sustain longer term growth momentum.
Goldman Sachs raised its target to $88 from $83 after a Q3 earnings beat and slightly better organic growth of 0.6%, indicating that even more neutral voices see improving fundamentals and some upside from current levels.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
JPMorgan initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and an $80 price target, implying limited upside and underscoring the need for proof of execution under new leadership before assigning a more constructive view.
Goldman Sachs, despite lifting its target to $88, kept a Neutral stance, reflecting caution around the near term demand environment, with its outlook now tied to modest organic growth of about -1.75% and a mix of higher pricing but lower volumes.
Across the more cautious commentary, reservations center on whether recent outperformance and improved guidance already capture much of the upside, leaving less room for multiple expansion if industrial conditions soften again.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
NYSE:TKR Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
Timken updated its 2025 earnings guidance, now forecasting full year earnings per diluted share of $3.90 to $4.00, while planning for revenue to decline about 0.75% at the midpoint, a modest improvement versus prior expectations.
The company completed its existing share repurchase program, buying back 8,500,489 shares, or 11.64% of outstanding shares, for a total of $617.37 million, signaling a sustained commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
No additional shares were repurchased in the most recent quarter, suggesting management may be preserving balance sheet flexibility as it navigates a mixed industrial demand environment.
Story Continues