Intelbrief / Water Crisis in Iran Puts Pressure on Leadership to Find a Viable Solution

AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi

Bottom Line Up Front

The water crisis in Iran has escalated into a profound political and security problem with supply levels running alarmingly low.
This acute emergency is the culmination of decades of flawed policy, overly ambitious agricultural goals, and a five-year drought aggravated by climate change.
Central to Iran’s water supply collapse, many analysts argue, is what has come to be known as Iran’s “Water Mafia” — a network of political, military, and business officials that have profited from dam projects, water transfers, and agricultural expansion, often at the expense of the environment and equitable access.
The crisis is also producing internal security pressures as water scarcity has historically prompted protests, such as the 2021 demonstrations in Khuzestan that were met with deadly force, and protests in Isfahan in March where demonstrators set fire to a water transfer station that diverted water to other provinces.

The water crisis in Iran has, in recent years, escalated from a recurring drought issue into a profound political and security problem that has the regime leadership concerned. Dozens of dams that once supplied the capital are now alarmingly low — leaving Tehran facing the possibility of “running out of water within weeks,” and even prompting government discussions of evacuating the city if supplies collapse. This acute emergency is the culmination of decades of flawed policy, overly ambitious agricultural goals, and a five-year drought aggravated by climate change. At the root of this crisis lies Iran’s long-standing policy of pushing for food self-sufficiency and long-term government corruption by what has been dubbed Iran’s “Water Mafia.” After two years of conflict with Israel, the Iranian population is losing patience with the regime, which continues to repress Iranian citizens without qualitatively improving the lives of the people.

Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, policymakers have pursued a goal of domestic food self-sufficiency, encouraging irrigation expansion, subsidizing water-intensive crops, and supporting the previously prohibited drilling of wells — often with weak oversight. Self-sufficiency has been a central goal of the post-revolution government, with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stating Iran must be able to produce its own food to avoid being vulnerable to what he calls “the world’s bullies.” As a result, the amount of irrigated land in Iran has nearly doubled since 1979, reaching over 22 million acres; but the water demand generated mainly by this expansion now overwhelms Iran’s water supply. Research by Stanford University assesses that 80 to 90 percent of Iran’s water is used for agriculture. As a result, groundwater has depleted rapidly; reservoir levels are on the verge of drying out, with some dams only holding one percent of its capacity, according to Iran’s National Water and Wastewater Management Office.

Central to Iran’s water supply collapse, many analysts argue, is what has come to be known as Iran’s “Water Mafia” — a network of political, military, and business officials that have profited from dam projects, water transfers, and agricultural expansion, often at the expense of the environment and equitable access. Reporting by Foreign Policy and the Middle East Institute highlight how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly its construction firm Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters (KAA), has played a pivotal role in the development of megaprojects — like building dams — that has diverted rivers, drained wetlands, and altered hydrological systems with little to no oversight. These projects thus enriched well-connected contractors and cemented the IRGC’s influence in Iran’s political economy, but they also accelerated the degradation of Iran’s water infrastructure. For the past two decades, the IRGC has assumed an increasingly more hands-on role in every aspect of Iranian society, displacing technocrats in some cases that would be far better suited to dealing with issues like water security.

At the same time, the government has failed to modernize infrastructure and shift to more of a conservationist mindset, exacerbating the problem. Iran needs to move from exploiting its natural resources to restoring them by investing in sustainable irrigation methods, improving transparency in water governance, and pursuing methods to refill the aquifers that support millions of people. Many Iranians fear that it is now too late to act before disaster strikes.

Iran’s geopolitical isolation and longstanding exposure to U.S. and international sanctions have, to an extent, further impacted the water emergency by constraining the country’s economic capacity. According to the School of Advanced International Studies Initiative for Research on Contemporary Iran at Johns Hopkins University, sanctions have affected Iran’s environment by limiting access to technology, expertise, and services, cutting off international assistance, and pushing the economy to rely more heavily on resource-intensive practices. Compounding the economic strain, Iran’s foreign policy posture — including its regional proxy support — consumes state resources that might otherwise be used for domestic resiliency. While some analysts contend that easing sanctions would boost Iran’s economy, others argue that even if sanctions were lifted — a position which U.S. President Donald Trump has considered — the current regime would be unlikely to invest those gains into the public, instead empowering the same networks that have long mismanaged and exploited the country’s water resources.

The crisis is also producing internal security pressures as water scarcity has historically prompted protests, such as the 2021 demonstrations in Khuzestan that were met with deadly force, and protests in Isfahan in March where demonstrators set fire to a water transfer station that diverted water to other provinces. Violent government crackdowns are common reactions to protests in Iran, with these demonstrations seen more as a threat to national security than to establish justice. But the scale of the crisis today further increases the risk of unrest, especially as the shortages have hit urban centers.

Iran is far from the only country dealing with the impact of climate change or the challenges of limited resources. Pakistan has been devastated by floods. Somalia and other countries in the Horn of Africa have been negatively affected by severe drought. Many of these countries, Iran included, lack the resiliency and infrastructure to overcome the most dire climate related challenges. Moreover, because Iran diverts so much money to funding its ‘Axis of Resistance’ proxy groups, it has less bandwidth to deal with domestic issues, including water management.