Energy Recovery’s fair value estimate has ticked down from $18.60 to $18.24 as analysts temper their growth outlook, even while remaining broadly constructive on the company’s long term story. This shift reflects cautious recalibration around the pace of CO₂ refrigeration adoption and revenue expansion, rather than a loss of confidence in the underlying technology or market opportunity. Read on to see how you can stay ahead of these evolving assumptions and track the narrative as it continues to unfold.
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Seaport Research recently lifted its price target on Energy Recovery to $23 from $17 while reiterating a Buy rating, signaling increased confidence in long term value creation even as timelines shift.
Analysts at Seaport highlight that CO₂ refrigeration is performing as expected operationally, reinforcing confidence in the underlying technology and execution, even though original equipment manufacturer adoption is running about a year behind prior expectations.
CJS Securities initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $19 price target, adding another supportive voice that sees attractive upside relative to the current fair value framework.
Across these notes, higher targets and positive ratings indicate that analysts generally view execution and growth prospects as strong enough to justify valuation, with upside potential remaining if CO₂ refrigeration adoption reaccelerates.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Seaport Research flags the roughly one year delay in original equipment manufacturer uptake for CO₂ refrigeration as a key near term risk, suggesting that some of the growth narrative may take longer to translate into revenue than initially expected, which can constrain near term valuation expansion.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
NasdaqGS:ERII Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
Energy Recovery completed repurchases of 626,440 shares between July 1 and September 30, 2025, spending $8.4M and closing out a $30M buyback program that retired 2,183,648 shares, roughly 4% of shares outstanding.
The company reported no share repurchases between August 6 and September 30, 2025 under a separate buyback authorized on August 6, 2025, leaving that newer program with 0 shares repurchased to date.
The completion of the $30M repurchase, together with the unused capacity on the newer authorization, provides Energy Recovery with flexibility to manage its capital return strategy as market conditions and investment opportunities change.
Story Continues