South Korea’s THAAD pain shows what Takaichi can expect from China

2 comments

1. Beijing’s fury over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent Taiwan comment feels all too familiar to South Korea. In 2016, President Park Geun-hye greenlit U.S. Forces Korea’s deployment of a THAAD missile defense system, triggering a pressure campaign from Beijing that has still not been fully unwound. Now South Koreans see something similar starting for Japan and are glad to be out of the firing line.

   There are obvious parallels in what came next: strong official, state media and social media condemnations; mobilized public fury; threats; and a large reduction in tourism, with warnings of more economic measures. However, South Korea’s affliction was on a larger scale than Japan’s — at least so far. Consumer-facing South Korean companies in China took a hit, some fatally, like Lotte, which provided the THAAD site. And South Korean exporters of all sorts, including producers of “Korean wave” dramas and K-pop, saw their China market dreams evaporate.

   Based on South Korea’s experience, Japanese waiting for Washington to step in and defend Takaichi shouldn’t hold their breath. Former U.S. President Barack Obama and then Trump 1.0 left South Korea to fend for itself. A key difference is that once THAAD was installed, Washington wouldn’t budge, limiting what Seoul could concede. Trump probably doesn’t care if Takaichi apologizes or is replaced by someone more to Beijing’s liking. But that lack of U.S. pressure is offset by Japan’s firmer stance toward Beijing than Seoul’s.

2. If THAAD was easily overwhelmed against Iran missiles/drones, I don’t see how China will have a hard time dealing with it.

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