See How a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Could Unfold

7 comments

1. Five miles off Taiwan’s coast, ZTD-05 amphibious vehicles roll out of ships and zip over the water amid a hail of artillery fire. The Chinese soldiers inside have their orders: Seize the beach, or die trying.

   Close by, China’s airborne troops are taking losses. They arrived before dawn in low-flying Y-20 aircraft to seize Taoyuan Airport. Taiwanese defenders downed several planes. The paratroopers that landed, scattered, are in a race to assault the airfield before Taiwan wrecks it.

   This hypothetical battle scenario imagines a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, as militaries, policymakers and wargamers are doing. An amphibious invasion would be one of the toughest military operations to execute. And an all-out war would be extremely bloody, devastate the global economy and change the course of the 21st century.

   Whether Beijing will try to conquer the democratically governed island by force is the biggest geopolitical unknown facing the world. A close second: How the U.S., Taiwan’s main defense partner, would respond.

2. way too many hypotheticals. Ukraine has shown that the US and its allies are completely under-prepared for modern warfare, and have a complete lack of imagination for what is effective and workable.

3. It would tank the chinese reputation. With taiwan being integral to the international economy, china would piss off many of its trade partners.

4. >This year, another capability showed up on the Chinese coast: mobile piers that can be used to unload directly onto a beach or possibly to a damaged port. The setup consists of three barges that line up one behind the other, close to the shore. Each has retractable legs that thrust down into the seabed to hold the ships in position. 

   >Once steadied, long bridges extend out, connecting one barge to the other, and the first barge to the shore, research by Dahm and Shugart shows.

   >The result is a 2,700-foot causeway where ferries or civilian cargo ships could pull up. Tanks, trucks and tactical vehicles would roll out to the bridge and onto Taiwan, possibly hundreds at a time. These piers would be vulnerable to attack, though, which means they could only be used once a beach was secured.

   Damn, I gotta admit no one can say the Chinese doesn’t know how to innovate. Underestimating them would be a deadly mistake.

   But IMO the greatest danger for Taiwan would be an exhaustion of political will in the West, and this already happened in Vietnam War, in Afghanistan War, and is happening with the current Ukraine War. As a result, I don’t think the Chinese will preemptively strike US bases in Japan or Korea; and as long as the US public continues to see this as another “foreign war”, they will be reluctant to lend support.

   Japan *might* come to Taiwan’s aid, regardless of US support, but this is music to Chinese ears because they are definitely itching to settle the score.

5. Taiwan is way more prepared to defend the main island. They have suns and antiship defenses.

   Only 3 ways to get troops their. Plane, shore or harbor.

   Planes- risk being shot down.

   Harbor- very risky unkess it’s secured. It woukd be trapped.

   Shore- very limited spots. And woukd be made into a kill zone.

   The water between would be a constant fight zone were subs, mines, and drones hit Chinese vessels.

   China only hope is to secure the air for over a week and destroy any ground and sea defenses.

6. What happens if China doesn’t launch a major all out amphibious assault but instead does a slow boil the frog strategy. They could just build bridges to the islands closest to them and make Taiwan look like aggressor attack civilian construction workers. Use that as a precedent to force all trade and air travel going to/from Taiwan pass through China. Instead of invading the main island, take over the out lying islands one by one while keeping the conflict low while using any resistance to impose more and more restrictions on goods going to the main island until they have captured it without provoking a major international response.

7. > Phase 1: Firepower – China would unleash a “joint firepower strike,” pounding Taiwan with missiles. 

   They missed two phases before that.

   Phase -1: Cyberattacks and assassinations. Sleeper agents will be activated. Power stations will be sabotaged. Internet cables cut. Starlink jammed. Military leaders hit.

   Phase 0: Naval blockade. Prevent containers from coming in. Cut off arms supply. This would be the last chance for Taiwan to surrender without a hot war, and the last chance for the US alliance to decide whether to intervene.

Comments are closed.