Interest Rate Increase in 2026?

4 comments

1. 30% chances to hike is very much in the “wait and see” zone

2. link is behind pay wall. prices got nothing to do with what redditors think, it has everything to do with how economy works. in general, if rates go up, prices don’t increase as much as investments move more towards liquidity assets, households become risk averse and postpone their home investments. if interest goes up too much, too fast, I guess anything is possible, including housing market crash from defaulting mortgages and big investors (wealth mngt firms, insurance sector) moving away from housing assets to avoid getting locked in during high volatility.

3. Too much crazy stuff going on to make any sound predictions. 2026 could be a good or bad year. 

   Russian invasion of Ukraine may or may not come to an end in 2026, the US will hold midterm elections, US gets increasingly hostile with Venezuela, Germany and France can’t shake off political crisis. 

4. Think ECB focus was mainly slowing inflation down, which they managed to, and they want to heat up the economy of the Union again by lowering them rates, as there is a lot of companies that are waiting for better conditions to start investing more and hiring more etc., and the energy shock has passed partially at least while the Ukraine conflict is unfortunately still ongoing that is adding a bit of uncertainty. Overall I don’t think they will do anything crazy in 2026, but again as the world currently is so unstable, anything is possible. P.S. I am not an investment advisor or macro expert of any sorts, just sharing my personal opinions. I am also waiting for rates to go down to refinance my mortgage and move to a bigger place, but I gave myself a deadline until 2030 where I assume the rates would go down (hopefully) by 50% and things go back to (sort of) normal.

Comments are closed.