Quick factors analysis:
Russia and Ukraine are currently on operational parity: The front line is practically at a standstill.
Ukraine will not sign peace under terms acceptable to Russia if it thinks the parity will continue. Giving up territory now for an uncertain truce means a next war under even less favorable conditions. Considering how Europe has been stepping up, Ukraine currently seems to count on sufficient support to sustain parity. Nothing much expected to change here in 2026.
Russia will not sign peace under terms acceptable to Ukraine, if it thinks the partity will continue. Parity is just fine w Putin, helps keep and consolidate power internally. Also, dictators are almost always arrogant and overestimate their force. Don't see anything changing in 2026.
Peace will happen only when 1 side starts believing it drops out of parity. Because if parity is no longer there, there will be "non-linear effects" (eg either side achieves air superiority which leads to total collapse of the front lines and "winner takes all it wants").
The US can draw as many peace plans as it wants but what leverage do they have to force either side to accept? EU defence primes stocks has already overperformed US primes 5x since 2022. The more US makes it "conditional" to EU and Ukraine, the more it starts hurting US back. What US could do, is unilaterally remove Russia sanctions, but EU was ~20x more important trade partner in terms of trade volume for US than Russia in 2021, even more so in terms of strategic trade (products with no alternatives). Risking EU trade for Russian trade hurts US economy.
What might happen in 2026, is severely lower (but non-negotiated) intensity. Eg 1st day with 0 casualties on both sides. Like Donbas ~2020.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg7vdd115vjo
Posted by Nordic-Bear
4 comments
Ah yeah, why I posted this in the first place: Please prove me wrong, so I can reduce my blindspots.
Why do you think Ukraine would be in STRATEGIC parity all of 2026? Aren’t Ukraine running out of people soon?
How does the production numbers look for EU vs Russia (and north korea)? Do we have parity in how many drones/shells each side can make? Didn’t Russia get air advantage so that they could drop glide bombs while Ukraine can’t?
1). I wouldn’t say the frontline is at a standstill. Russia has been gaining ground consistently for a while now. If you look at the map they aren’t taking huge %’s of Ukraine, but it shows that Ukrainians aren’t holding the line and are being pushed back (in certain spots).
2). In terms of holding out, Russia has a lot more manpower to keep throwing away than Ukraine. Ukraine has the international support advantage though, which also matters.
3.). IMO there is a lot of fog of war and it’s very difficult to get a real sense of much beyond the above.
4). I do agree in general that peace seems unlikely in the near future.
If Ukraine keeps fighting they will eventually lose cos Europe has nothing left to give them.
Could there really be another whole year of drones with knifes duct taped to them ramming into each other?
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