Ipsos 27 Nov – 3 Dec seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:

SNP ~ 60 (+1 / -3); 40
Lab ~ 19 (-4 / -2); 23
RUK ~ 17 (nc / +17); 23
Grn ~ 17 (+1 / +7); 21
Con ~ 11 (+4 / -20); 14
LD ~ 5 (-2 / +1); 8

https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3m7mzuodlcs2q

This would be a pro-Independence majority

by upthetruth1

31 comments

  2. Just like in England, Greens would do best in the cities, they’re projected to win 4 seats from the constituency list (all in Glasgow and Edinburgh) when they’ve never won the constituency list before, and 13 seats from the regional list up from 8 in 2021.

    Of course, they would still win at least one seat from every regional list

    The Greens are rising on both sides of the border

  3. Lol. Tories.

    Maybe trad Tories are less bad than new reform though.

  4. Honestly surprised the SNP is still doing so well after being in charge over a decade.

  5. Imagine how out of touch with reality you need to be to vote for Reform. Mental behavior.

  9. Why my bit keeps electing Willie fucking Rennie I’ll never know. St Andrews is a fucking strange place.

  11. I am genuinely surprised that Conservatives/Reform take no constituency seats in the North East.

  12. Nice to see the Greens pick up, if/when Scotland gets Indy Greens would be a serious contender for my vote.

    Obviously JCs new party is not showing up, dead on arrival I expect.

  13. I just don’t get how reform is so popular in Scotland, I’m lucky enough not to meet anyone who is of their view point – where are they located? live in Glasgow btw, the only place I hear or see anything about reform is via the old media (newspaper headlines and English based tv)?

  14. It’s interesting to see how frankly odd political support is in Scotland.

    The SNP have been an absolute disaster for Scotland yet polls still show the SNP winning the bulk of seats in Holyrood.

  17. Anyone in Scotland voting for reform is a fucking Muppet, how can you vote for a party that has openly said they don’t like Scotland and how it’s run/setup……..

  18. I don’t understand why RUK has 20 regional seats but only 17 total seats

  20. If we get another SNP term I think we are going to have to think about whether we live in a working democracy as they are a bit too hegemonic.

  21. I predict a bigger share for Reform due to “**Shy Tory factor**”.

    More conservative and rightwing votes tend to be more reluctant to share their voting preference in opinion polls. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor) 

  22. JB hanging on in there like a big red pustule on the tip of West Scotland, I see.

  23. Dear God the Conservative Party will have been reduced to three Eton schoolboys in a trenchcoat and the Borders will still try and send one of them to Holyrood…

  24. I suspect reform is being underestimated, reckon they will come second.

  25. I’ve never felt such strong hatred towards anyone who votes reform. I used to see it as quite a childish thing to do to cut people off if they didn’t align with my political ties, but I cut off a very good friend after he started spouting ring wing reform-nazi propaganda. The things he said were so sexist (I am a female), anti-Scottish (I am a very proud Scot), homophobic (I am bisexual), and so anti-human (I am a human), so I cut him off entirely. He was one of those people that, if anything was challenged, he would say “Oh but what about the immigrants”

    THE IMMIGRANTS ARE ONE PART OF REFORMS PLAN. LOOK AT THE REST OF THEIR MANIFESTO!!!!

    If u vote reform, u are an embarrassment to women, Scotland, lgbt folk, and humans overall. Shut the fuck up about the immigrants.

  27. Reform splitting the right wing vote is absolutely brilliant. Normally every one of them would just vote Tory but the split renders both parties impotent.

  28. Two things:
    1. The overhang effect on this is insanely huge. This projected set of votes looks almost designed to expose the weaknesses of AMS. Still better than FPTP, though.
    2. Labour are on course to continue their record of losing seats in every single Scottish Parliament election. They’ve been on a constant slide since Donald Dewar’s haul back in 1999.

  31. Wow. Has anyone checked on Crow / Sea Owl / Rando after this latest disaster of a poll?!

    They will be so conflicted here. The polls suggest Labour will be destroyed and the Unionist vote watered down. So, in order to at least pretend like they offer policies to differentiate Labour from the Tories and Reform, in some areas they will need to campaign for voters to vote for the SNP to keep the others out. Hilarious.

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