Edrogan is gonna use the whole conflict to meme his way out of the mess he made in Turkey.
NATO suddenly remembered that Turkey is a powerful NATO ally when a war that threatens Europe started. What a coincidence.
At any case , that’s a good decision.
UK wants to boost the economy and one of the best exports in current times are weapon systems. Turkey had benefited from UK in developing its Bayraktar drones used sucessfully in recent conflicts. By supporting Turkey, the UK gets to outsource production lines not economically viable outside the EU, jobs in the UK industy sector, pressure the EU via migration flow control through Turkey, and an battleworthy ally in any conflicts in the Middle East. Turkey gets a financial boost, more jobs, and a chance to improve its strong weapon systems engineering (boosting its exports of weapons).
The problem is that Turkey has not yet sent a clear signal on where it stands internationally (in terms of Russia and China) and amidst a financial crisis it can go to great depths to get a profitable deal.
The Turks don’t have any money the Turkish economy is knee deep in shit .
This is a classic diplomatic bluff battle the European Union the British and the Americans will promise turkey all sorts of things that they have no intention of fulfilling
the Turks will pretend to believe the statements in public.
In private direct and indirect threats will be made to force turkey to do what it was always bound to do.
In 3 months to swedish finish NATO entry saga will end and nothing beyond empty posturing for the media on all sides will change as far as relations between turkey and the West.
Realist bargaining is a legitimate policy position but you need to have leverage to bargain turkey doesn’t have leverage or political credibility this is the result.
This situation is not fundamentally different from the fake apology ture Erdogan has been running all over the Middle East from Jerusalem to Oman to Cairo to Riyadh.
He pretends to apologize for his shitty policy positions and we pretend to believe him.
We buy long-term use crown jewel cheap assets at cut rate prices in Turkey and we’ll use them as leverage against any future Turkish State policy.
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Ah yes buying off Turkey has started.
Finally some reason
Edrogan is gonna use the whole conflict to meme his way out of the mess he made in Turkey.
NATO suddenly remembered that Turkey is a powerful NATO ally when a war that threatens Europe started. What a coincidence.
At any case , that’s a good decision.
UK wants to boost the economy and one of the best exports in current times are weapon systems. Turkey had benefited from UK in developing its Bayraktar drones used sucessfully in recent conflicts. By supporting Turkey, the UK gets to outsource production lines not economically viable outside the EU, jobs in the UK industy sector, pressure the EU via migration flow control through Turkey, and an battleworthy ally in any conflicts in the Middle East. Turkey gets a financial boost, more jobs, and a chance to improve its strong weapon systems engineering (boosting its exports of weapons).
The problem is that Turkey has not yet sent a clear signal on where it stands internationally (in terms of Russia and China) and amidst a financial crisis it can go to great depths to get a profitable deal.
Edit: I was indeed wrong on the BAE systems it was another UK defense contractor source https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/nov/27/revealed-uk-technology-turkey-rise-global-drone-power
Edit 2: there was confusion in the commission of the S-400 missiles which put a strain in the relationship of Turkey and NATO. This had sowed some confusion on where Turkey stands.
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/13/europe/turkey-russia-missiles-nato-analysis-intl/index.html
This is not good…
The Turks don’t have any money the Turkish economy is knee deep in shit .
This is a classic diplomatic bluff battle the European Union the British and the Americans will promise turkey all sorts of things that they have no intention of fulfilling
the Turks will pretend to believe the statements in public.
In private direct and indirect threats will be made to force turkey to do what it was always bound to do.
In 3 months to swedish finish NATO entry saga will end and nothing beyond empty posturing for the media on all sides will change as far as relations between turkey and the West.
Realist bargaining is a legitimate policy position but you need to have leverage to bargain turkey doesn’t have leverage or political credibility this is the result.
This situation is not fundamentally different from the fake apology ture Erdogan has been running all over the Middle East from Jerusalem to Oman to Cairo to Riyadh.
He pretends to apologize for his shitty policy positions and we pretend to believe him.
We buy long-term use crown jewel cheap assets at cut rate prices in Turkey and we’ll use them as leverage against any future Turkish State policy.