The dynamics of Russia’s maritime oil exports show signs of a coming plunge due to intensified sanctions and difficulties in circumventing them in global trading chains.
According to information provided by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine via Ukrinform, intelligence analysts assess the situation as unique for the global oil market, where sanctions continue to press on maritime deliveries.
“Although Russia continues to ramp up crude oil shipments, sanctions and market restrictions are forming a sustained negative dynamic of its maritime exports”
– Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine
Trends and risk factors
Most cargoes remain at sea without unloading, while carriers are increasingly changing destination ports and employing ship-to-ship operations to bypass the imposed restrictions.
According to intelligence data, volumes of “oil on water” are rising: since the beginning of December 2025, tankers have accumulated about 180 million barrels of Russian crude oil, which is 28% higher than the figure at the end of August and is the highest level since 2022. At the same time, export revenues are declining: prices for Urals in the Baltic region fell to $41.16 per barrel, in the Black Sea – to $38.28, and ESPO dropped to $52.36 per barrel.
Demand in Global South countries is also weakening. After the United States imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, a number of Chinese and Indian refineries tightened tanker inspection requirements, leading to delays and redirected shipments. Frequent route changes and the involvement of intermediaries in supply chains complicate sales.
As intelligence emphasizes, overloaded routes, accumulation of oil at sea, and rising risks for buyers indicate a structural deterioration of Russia’s export conditions.
“Logistics are becoming more expensive, reliance on the ‘shadow’ fleet is increasing, and price pressure on Russian oil grades will grow, further limiting the options to circumvent sanctions”
– Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine
According to the latest data, in November Russia lost its position as the largest supplier of oil to China; it was displaced by Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Angola.