he world is entering an era of strategic transformation that is more complex, nonlinear and unpredictable than any previous moment in modern history. Conventional geopolitical frameworks – rooted in realism, balance of power and strategic rivalry – no longer fully capture the dynamics shaping state behavior and global competition.
The emergence of multidomain conflicts, asymmetric warfare, weaponized interdependence, disruptive technologies and great-power competition has created a global ecosystem that behaves less like a predictable Newtonian machine and more like a quantum system: uncertain, probabilistic, interconnected and deeply paradoxical.
This environment demands a new way of thinking: quantum geopolitics. This is not a metaphorical gimmick, but an analytical necessity. It is a strategic paradigm that draws from the principles of quantum mechanics – uncertainty, superposition, entanglement and probability – to navigate an era where traditional linear logic fails.
For Indonesia, which stands at the crossroads of the Indo-Pacific and aspires to become a major global power by 2045, quantum geopolitics offers the intellectual architecture to craft a grand strategy that is adaptive, resilient and decisive. President Prabowo Subianto’s administration must embrace this paradigm to safeguard Indonesia’s sovereignty, harness its geoeconomic potential and maintain strategic autonomy amidst the intensifying contest between the United States and China.
Four major quantum principles illuminate this new landscape.
First, the uncertainty principle. We cannot fully know a state’s intention and capability simultaneously. China’s military buildup is cloaked in ambiguity, the US Indo-Pacific strategy vacillates between engagement and containment, and Russia’s actions appear opportunistic yet unpredictable. ASEAN states, including Indonesia, are forced to balance cautiously amid unclear signals and contested narratives.
Every Thursday
Closely related is the concept of superposition, where states occupy multiple strategic positions simultaneously. The US and China are rivals, partners and competitors in different domains at the same time. Similarly, Jakarta is concurrently a friend to Washington, a key economic partner to Beijing, a leader in ASEAN and a nonaligned actor. In classical geopolitics, these positions appear contradictory; in quantum geopolitics, they are expected.