>Growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to lead to a full-blown invasion because of the enormous military, economic and human costs such action would provoke
Since when this stops Russia from invasion of a weaker country?
No shit Sherlock
Are they going to roll-back the current invasion that has been in progress for 7 years? If not, they absolutely are invading Ukraine. An invasion that has stalled is not an invasion that has ended.
Invade “further”?
They ratchet up tensions often enough, when they finally do attack nobody will expect it.
Eh, the invasion is not imminent, nor is it likely that it is already decided, but all signs are there that the Russian military was told to prepare for such an option, and their rhetoric on Ukraine has changed significantly in the past year. This signals a lower threshold for the use of force on their side.
The conflict is fundamentally unresolved, and I find it quite likely that we’ll see a round two, (but then again, I was convinced of that since 2015, so this is not new).
The article is also misleading, as it paints invasion of Ukraine as some sort of all or nothing scenario. Nobody thinks Russia will take over whole of Ukraine, but even an expert they cited think use of force is an option.
>Rob Lee, a Eurasia fellow at U.S. think tank the Foreign Policy Research Institute said he doubts Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to conduct a large-scale invasion of Ukraine
>”He wants to use force, or the threat of force, to get Ukraine and NATO to make concessions.”
Rob is a smart guy BTW, I highly recommend his stuff.
8 comments
Russia unlikely to invade, says Russia
>Growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to lead to a full-blown invasion because of the enormous military, economic and human costs such action would provoke
Since when this stops Russia from invasion of a weaker country?
No shit Sherlock
Are they going to roll-back the current invasion that has been in progress for 7 years? If not, they absolutely are invading Ukraine. An invasion that has stalled is not an invasion that has ended.
Invade “further”?
They ratchet up tensions often enough, when they finally do attack nobody will expect it.
Eh, the invasion is not imminent, nor is it likely that it is already decided, but all signs are there that the Russian military was told to prepare for such an option, and their rhetoric on Ukraine has changed significantly in the past year. This signals a lower threshold for the use of force on their side.
The conflict is fundamentally unresolved, and I find it quite likely that we’ll see a round two, (but then again, I was convinced of that since 2015, so this is not new).
The article is also misleading, as it paints invasion of Ukraine as some sort of all or nothing scenario. Nobody thinks Russia will take over whole of Ukraine, but even an expert they cited think use of force is an option.
>Rob Lee, a Eurasia fellow at U.S. think tank the Foreign Policy Research Institute said he doubts Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to conduct a large-scale invasion of Ukraine
>”He wants to use force, or the threat of force, to get Ukraine and NATO to make concessions.”
Rob is a smart guy BTW, I highly recommend his stuff.
https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/08/russias-coercive-diplomacy-why-did-the-kremlin-mass-its-forces-near-ukraine-this-spring/
One expert believes it’s unlikely, another thinks otherwise.