The subdued stock price reaction suggests that Siemens Energy AG’s (ETR:ENR) strong earnings didn’t offer any surprises. We think that investors have missed some encouraging factors underlying the profit figures.

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earnings-and-revenue-history

XTRA:ENR Earnings and Revenue History December 18th 2025

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company’s profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it’s worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Siemens Energy has an accrual ratio of -0.64 for the year to September 2025. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of €4.1b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of €1.41b. Siemens Energy shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months. Unfortunately for shareholders, the company has also been issuing new shares, diluting their share of future earnings.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

To understand the value of a company’s earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders’ interests. In fact, Siemens Energy increased the number of shares on issue by 8.2% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. You can see a chart of Siemens Energy’s EPS by clicking here.

Three years ago, Siemens Energy lost money. On the bright side, in the last twelve months it grew profit by 19%. On the other hand, earnings per share are only up 19% over the same period. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.

In the long term, earnings per share growth should beget share price growth. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if Siemens Energy can grow EPS persistently. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company’s share price might grow.

At the end of the day, Siemens Energy is diluting shareholders which will dampen earnings per share growth, but its accrual ratio showed it can back up its profits with free cash flow. Considering all the aforementioned, we’d venture that Siemens Energy’s profit result is a pretty good guide to its true profitability, albeit a bit on the conservative side. Ultimately, this article has formed an opinion based on historical data. However, it can also be great to think about what analysts are forecasting for the future. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.

Our examination of Siemens Energy has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to ‘follow the money’ and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.